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A stronger role for long-term moisture change than for CO2 in determining tropical woody vegetation change

W. Gosling,C. Miller,T. Shanahan,P. Holden,J. Overpeck,F. van Langevelde

Published 2022 in Science

ABSTRACT

Anthropogenically elevated CO2 (eCO2) concentrations have been suggested to increase woody cover within tropical ecosystems through fertilization. The effect of eCO2 is built into Earth system models, although testing the relationship over long periods remains challenging. Here, we explore the relative importance of six drivers of vegetation change in western Africa over the past ~500,000 years (moisture availability, fire activity, mammalian herbivore density, temperature, temperature seasonality, CO2) by coupling past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana) with global data. We found that moisture availability and fire activity were the most important factors in determining woody cover, whereas the effect of CO2 was small. Our findings suggest that the role of eCO2 effects on tropical vegetation in predictive models must be reconsidered. Description Carbon in the long view The influence of long-term fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on woody vegetation growth is complex. The prevailing paradigm has been that it enhances growth. However, using a 500,000-year record of vegetation change at a site in tropical Africa, Gosling et al. conclude that shifts in atmospheric CO2 concentrations do not drive changes in woody cover in the tropics at the millennial scale. Instead, long-term changes in moisture appear to have a greater effect. In the context of current climate change and increasing CO2 concentrations, these findings suggest, at least for the tropics, that models and policies for anthropogenic climate change mitigation involving enhanced CO2 drawdown into vegetation may not be as effective as hoped. —AMS Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have not been the driving force in Pleistocene woody vegetation change in the African tropics.

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