Assessing the spatiotemporal malaria transmission intensity with heterogeneous risk factors: A modeling study in Cambodia

Malaria control can significantly benefit from a holistic and precise way of quantitatively measuring the transmission intensity, which needs to incorporate spatiotemporally varying risk factors. In this study, we conduct a systematic investigation to characterize malaria transmission intensity by taking a spatiotemporal network perspective, where nodes capture the local transmission intensities resulting from dominant vector species, the population density, and land cover, and edges describe the cross-region human mobility patterns. The inferred network enables us to accurately assess the transmission intensity over time and space from available empirical observations. Our study focuses on malaria-severe districts in Cambodia. The malaria transmission intensities determined using our transmission network reveal both qualitatively and quantitatively their seasonal and geographical characteristics: the risks increase in the rainy season and decrease in the dry season; remote and sparsely populated areas generally show higher transmission intensities than other areas. Our findings suggest that: the human mobility (e.g., in planting/harvest seasons), environment (e.g., temperature), and contact risk (coexistences of human and vector occurrence) contribute to malaria transmission in spatiotemporally varying degrees; quantitative relationships between these influential factors and the resulting malaria transmission risk can inform evidence-based tailor-made responses at the right locations and times.

• Publication year

  2023

• Venue

  Infectious Disease Modelling

• Publication date

  2023-02-01

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2023.01.006PMID 36844760PMCID 9944205
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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