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Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

J. Tavares,R. Oliveira,Maurizio Mencuccini,Caroline Signori‐Müller,L. Pereira,F. Diniz,M. Gilpin,Manuel J Marca Zevallos,Carlos A Salas Yupayccana,Martin Acosta,F. M. Perez Mullisaca,F. Barros,P. Bittencourt,Halina Jancoski,M. Scalon,B. Marimon,I. Oliveras Menor,B. Marimon,M. Fancourt,Alexander Chambers-Ostler,A. Esquível-Muelbert,L. Rowland,P. Meir,A. C. Lôla da Costa,A. Nina,Jesús Sánchez,J. S. Tintaya,R. S. C. Chino,Jeannette V. Baca,Leticia Fernandes,Edwin R M Cumapa,João A. Santos,R. Teixeira,Ligia Tello,M. T. M. Ugarteche,G. A. Cuellar,Franklin S. Martínez,A. Araujo-Murakami,E. Almeida,W. J. A. da Cruz,J. del Aguila Pasquel,L. Aragāo,T. Baker,P. D. de Camargo,R. Brienen,W. Castro,S. Ribeiro,F. Coelho de Souza,E. Cosio,Nallaret Davila Cardozo,Richarlly da Costa Silva,M. Disney,J. Espejo,T. Feldpausch,L. Ferreira,L. Giacomin,N. Higuchi,M. Hirota,E. Honorio,W. Huaraca Huasco,S. Lewis,G. Flores Llampazo,Y. Malhi,Abel Monteagudo Mendoza,P. Morandi,Víctor Chama Moscoso,Robert Muscarella,D. Penha,Mayda Rocha,Gleicy Rodrigues,A. Ruschel,N. Salinas,M. Schlickmann,M. Silveira,Joey Talbot,R. Vasquez,L. Vedovato,S. Vieira,O. Phillips,E. Gloor,David R. Galbraith

Published 2023 in Nature

ABSTRACT

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk^ 1 , 2 , yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ _50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM_50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk^ 3 – 5 , little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ _50 and HSM_50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ _50 and HSM_50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM_50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM_50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM_50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM_50 in the Amazon^ 6 , 7 , with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink. A pan-Amazon study of forests shows large variations in drought tolerance traits and finds that forests in regions of pronounced climate change are losing biomass and may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits.

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