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Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries

A. Montanari,Hung T. T. Nguyen,S. Rubinetti,S. Ceola,S. Galelli,A. Rubino,D. Zanchettin

Published 2023 in Science Advances

ABSTRACT

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on a 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that the 2022 hydrological drought is the worst event (30% lower than the second worst, with a six-century return period), part of an increasing trend in severe drought occurrence. The decline in summer river flows (−4.14 cubic meters per second per year), which is more relevant than the precipitation decline, is attributed to a combination of changes in the precipitation regime, resulting in a decline of snow fraction (−0.6% per year) and snowmelt (−0.18 millimeters per day per year), and to increasing evaporation rate (+0.013 cubic kilometers per year) and irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents a compelling case where the hydrological impact of climate change is exacerbated by local changes in hydrologic seasonality and water use.

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