Climate-driven range expansion of the invasive silver-cheeked toadfish (Lagocephalus sceleratus, Gmelin 1789) in the Mediterranean: modelling habitat suitability

Rates of alien species introductions in European waters continue to increase rapidly. As a fundamental concern for the European Commission, the identification of novel and potential Invasive Alien Species (IAS) in the region is essential to realise implementation of current EU regulations. The silver-cheeked toadfish, Lagocephalus sceleratus, has recently been identified as a significant threat to local biodiversity, fisheries, and human health in the region. In order to assess the potential for further range expansion, and to support potential mitigation strategies for this species, we employed species distribution models (SDMs) to assess the past, current and future habitat suitability of the silver-cheeked toadfish in Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) indicate that habitat suitability for Lagocephalus sceleratus will increase in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Adriatic and Ligurian Seas, and the Strait of Sicily, extending toward the North African coast under a realistic climate scenario. Additionally, rising temperatures between 2000 and 2020 possibly enhanced the species’ migration through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea, which had remained uncolonized since its opening in 1863 until the first record of this species presence in 2003. Given the establishment and rapid expansion of the silver-cheeked toadfish in the Mediterranean, complete eradication is no longer feasible, necessitating a shift toward adaptive management and mitigation strategies. Key priorities include public education to reduce poisoning incidents, support for the fisheries sector through technological and financial measures, and the promotion of collaborative governance among scientists, fishers, and policymakers.

• Publication year

  2026

• Venue

  Mediterranean Marine Science

• Publication date

  2026-02-18

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.12681/mms.42200
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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