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Abrupt changes in algal biomass of thousands of US lakes are related to climate and are more likely in low-disturbance watersheds

P. Soranno,Patrick J. Hanly,K. Webster,Tyler Wagner,Andrew McDonald,Arnab Shuvo,E. Schliep,K. L. Reinl,I. McCullough,Pang-Ning Tan,N. Lottig,Kendra Spence Cheruvelil

Published 2025 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

ABSTRACT

Significance Algal biomass has been increasing in many lakes in recent years. These increases are thought to be due to climate change, potentially leading to regime shifts (large ecosystem responses to small disturbances that push past a tipping point). However, evidence for these expectations remains scarce. To address this gap, we analyzed 24,452 lake time series across 34 y. We found that climate caused changes in algal biomass in a third of the lakes, but only 13% had the potential for regime shifts, and just 4% showed increased algae through time. Instead, most lakes (71%) showed abrupt but temporary algal biomass changes, with a higher likelihood of a climate response under certain environmental conditions with low to moderate human disturbance.

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