Winters restrict a climate change–driven butterfly range expansion despite rapid evolution of seasonal timing traits

Mats Ittonen,Matthew E Nielsen,Isabelle Siemers,Magne Friberg,K. Gotthard

Published 2025 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

ABSTRACT

Significance Species ranges are changing rapidly due to climate change, but it is unclear how evolution during range expansion affects these range shifts. Our field experiments within and beyond the range of a native butterfly reveal that although two traits crucial for the timing of winter dormancy have evolved in expanding range margin populations, selection on them is weak at most times during most years. Instead, the range is constrained by cold winters, to which the butterflies have not adapted, possibly because historical natural selection at the range margin has depleted genetic variation for this trait. Thus, to understand the role of evolution in range expansion, we must identify the traits that limit the range and their potential for contemporary evolution.

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