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Tropical cyclones and climate change: An overview for the public health community.

Jacob D. Carstens,Christopher K. Uejio,Emily Powell,Jihoon Jung,Savannah Zonka

Published 2025 in Environmental Research

ABSTRACT

Tropical cyclones (TCs) strain the public health system, particularly as coastal communities and infrastructure grow. Increases in sea level and ocean temperatures motivate research into how anthropogenic climate change is affecting TC behavior. We provide a comprehensive overview of TCs and available tools to study them, then introduce key TC-climate change relationships of greatest relevance for public health. We discuss observed trends and future projections in global TCs using observations, theoretical basis for observed trends, and results from a wide array of models. There is high confidence that, in general TC flooding risks are exacerbated by climate change, and warming oceans provide more fuel for TCs to reach higher intensities. They are also occurring across a wider range of latitudes. There is less confidence surrounding the global frequency of TCs and other small-scale aspects such as their associated tornado risks, to which research is ongoing among atmospheric scientists. Collectively, the literature urges continued investment in public health infrastructure in TC-prone areas as meteorological hazards likely worsen, particularly for vulnerable, marginalized communities near the coasts. In the short term, TCs cause premature death, illness from exposure to environmental or infectious agents, injuries due to water-related hazards (e.g., storm surge, flooding, drowning) and damaging winds, and stress from evacuation. Beyond immediate fatalities, TCs can exacerbate long-term health risks due to the stress and financial challenges from relocation and recovery. Using established methods, studies suggest the human health impacts are much greater than documented by existing media or medical coding practices.

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