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Distribution Range and Richness of Plant Species Are Predicted to Increase by 2100 due to a Warmer and Wetter Climate in Northern China

Ying Sun,Yan Deng,Shuran Yao,Yuan Sun,A. Degen,Longwei Dong,Jiali Luo,Shubin Xie,Qingqing Hou,Dong Tang,Yuzhen Sun,Junlan Xiong,Jie Peng,Weigang Hu,Jinzhi Ran,Jianming Deng

Published 2025 in Global Change Biology

ABSTRACT

The warming global climate is threatening terrestrial ecosystem stability, including plant community structure and diversity. However, it remains unclear how distribution, richness, and turnover of plant species are impacted by warming and wetting in northern China. In the present study, species distribution models were applied to predict the spatial distribution of 5111 plant species based on 111,071 occurrence records in northern China. Additionally, variations in species richness and turnover rates were predicted for 2100 under 3 scenarios. The results indicated that approximately 70% of plant species will expand in their distribution, resulting in an increase in species richness. These changes will be driven mainly by temperature seasonality (TSN), annual precipitation (MAP), and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ). However, about 30%–40% of the species will face extinction risks, including a considerable number of endemic and Red‐Listed species, and suitable habitat loss (LSH) will exceed 30%. Narrow‐ranging species will be more likely to lose a larger percentage of their suitable habitats than wide‐ranging species, highlighting their sensitivity to environmental changes. Importantly, it emerged that species turnover rates will increase linearly with ecological vulnerability at the grid level, indicating that community structure and species composition are easily affected by climate change in ecologically vulnerable areas. Therefore, biodiversity hotspots with high species richness in the southern study areas, as well as regions exhibiting both fast species turnover and significant ecological vulnerability, should be prioritized for conservation. These findings provide insights into how species composition and richness in plant communities vary with global climate change and provide effective ecological conservation and management strategies.

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