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From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Violaine Coulon,A. Klose,Tamsin L. Edwards,Fiona E. Turner,F. Pattyn,R. Winkelmann

Published 2025 in Nature Communications

ABSTRACT

Robust projections of future sea-level rise are essential for coastal adaptation, yet they remain hampered by uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet projections–the largest potential contributor to sea-level change under global warming. Here, we combine two ice-sheet models, systematically sample parametric and climate uncertainties, and calibrate against historical observations to quantify Antarctic ice-sheet changes to 2300 and beyond. By 2300, the projected Antarctic sea-level contributions range from -0.09 m to +1.74 m under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, outer limits of 5-95% probability intervals), and from +0.73 m to +5.95 m under very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Irrespective of the wide range of uncertainties explored, large-scale Antarctic ice-sheet retreat is triggered under SSP5-8.5, while reaching net-zero emissions well before 2100 strongly reduces multi-centennial ice loss. Yet, even under such strong mitigation, a significant sea-level contribution could still result from West Antarctica. Our results suggest that current mitigation efforts may not be sufficient to avoid self-sustained Antarctic ice loss, making emission decisions taken in the coming years decisive for future sea-level rise. Even if net-zero emissions are reached well before 2100, West Antarctic ice-sheet retreat could still drive multi-meter sea-level rise by 2300. Emission reductions in the coming years are critical to limit long-term ice loss from Antarctica.

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