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Developmental Trajectories of Positive Expectancies of Cannabis Use Effects Among Early Adolescents: Longitudinal Observational Study Using Latent Class Growth Analysis

W. Qin,Dong-Chul Seo,Wura Jacobs,Sijia Huang,Kit K. Elam

Published 2026 in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance

ABSTRACT

Abstract Background Positive expectancies of cannabis use effects, which are the beliefs about the anticipated positive effects of cannabis, are robust cognitive precursors of adolescent cannabis initiation and escalation. However, little is known about how sociodemographic, familial, and psychopathological factors predict positive expectancies of cannabis use effects or how these expectancies evolve across early adolescence. Objective This study aimed to identify distinct developmental trajectories of positive expectancies of cannabis use effects among early adolescents, as well as the longitudinal effects of familial factors on positive expectancies of cannabis use effects over time. Methods This study used latent class growth analysis with 3 waves of longitudinal data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD Study) to identify distinct trajectories of positive expectancies of cannabis use effects among a large, demographically diverse cohort of early adolescents (aged 10‐13 years). Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine whether baseline sociodemographic and policy-level factors were associated with class membership. Time-varying effects of familial factors (ie, parental monitoring, family cannabis use rules, and family conflict) and adolescents’ psychopathology were examined within and across trajectory classes using class-specific and common effects models. Results Four distinct trajectories of positive expectancies of cannabis use effects emerged with different profiles: moderate-increasing (3118/7409, 42.1%), high-increasing (2111/7409, 28.5%), low-increasing (1496/7409, 20.2%), and high-decreasing (684/7409, 9.2%) trajectories. Parental monitoring and strict family cannabis use rules consistently predicted lower positive expectancies of cannabis use effects, particularly in the moderate- and high-increasing groups, while family conflict emerged as a robust risk factor. Psychopathological symptoms became increasingly predictive of positive expectancies of cannabis use effects at later ages, suggesting a developmental shift in vulnerability. Conclusions The development of positive expectancies of cannabis use effects in early adolescence is heterogeneous and shaped by the interplay among sociodemographic, familial, and psychopathological factors. These findings highlight the critical window for early, family-based prevention and underscore the importance of tailoring intervention strategies to specific developmental and risk profiles.

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