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Reviews and syntheses: The role of process-based modeling of the CO 2  : CH 4 production ratio in predicting future terrestrial Arctic methane emissions

Marius Moser,Lara Kaiser,V. Brovkin,C. Beer

Published 2026 in Biogeosciences

ABSTRACT

Abstract. Thawing permafrost in the Arctic threatens to potentially release large amounts of decomposed organic matter as CO2 or CH4 to the atmosphere. Predicting the ratio of emitted CO2 to CH4 is imperative for reliable future projections. Here, we review the recent literature concerning methanogenesis, and its current representation in both land surface models (LSMs) and the state-of-the-art process-based methane models. We found that the key processes, required to capture the dynamics of the CO2:CH4 production ratio, are: fermentation, hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, and acetoclastic methanogenesis. Commonly discussed linked processes are Fe(III)-reduction and homoacetogenesis. Environmental factors influencing these processes, as identified in the literature, are: temperature, pH, water table position and alternative electron acceptors. While modern process-based methane models account for most of these factors and processes, the same is not true for the simplified methane formulations in many LSMs, which often opt for pre-set parameters that define a constant share of methane production from anaerobic decomposition. This static approach stands in opposition to the growing amount of lab and in-situ data, which suggest a high degree of spatio-temporal variability concerning this ratio, thus preventing its accurate prediction in a changing future Arctic. The challenge lies in upscaling the data as the environmental factors are barely quantified at the pan-Arctic scale. Additionally, there remains the important challenge of how to model and parameterize the temperature dependence of the individual underlying processes. Going forward, these challenges need to be overcome in order to reliably project the CO2:CH4 production ratio and methane emissions on larger scales. This will require a more process-based approach of methanogenesis in LSMs, for which we suggest a baseline concept here.

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