Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2013

• Venue

  Management Sciences

• Publication date

  2013-05-07

• Fields of study

  Business, Economics, Computer Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2013.1715
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• The Self in Social Judgment

  2013cited by this paper
• Individual differences in the newsvendor problem: Behavior and cognitive reflection

  2013cited by this paper
• Newsvendor Demand Chasing Revisited

  2013cited by this paper
• Managers and Students as Newsvendors

  2012influential reference
• True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration

  2012cited by this paper
• A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment.

  2010influential reference
• Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?

  2010cited by this paper
• An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity

  2009influential reference
• Supply Chain Coordination Models with Retailer's Attitudes Toward Risk

  2009cited by this paper
• Contracting in Supply Chains: A Laboratory Investigation

  2009influential reference
• Social Preferences and Supply Chain Performance: An Experimental Study

  2008cited by this paper
• Newsvendor "Pull-to-Center" Effect: Adaptive Learning in a Laboratory Experiment

  2008cited by this paper
• Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models

  2008cited by this paper
• Learning by Doing in the Newsvendor Problem: A Laboratory Investigation of the Role of Experience and Feedback

  2008influential reference
• The trouble with overconfidence.

  2008influential reference
• Decision-making and the newsvendor problem: an experimental study

  2008influential reference
• Production , Manufacturing and Logistics A benchmark solution for the risk-averse newsvendor problem

  2006cited by this paper
• Behavioral Causes of the Bullwhip Effect and the Observed Value of Inventory Information

  2006cited by this paper
• Using Dynamic Programming-based DSS to Manage Inventory at Jeppesen

  2005cited by this paper
• Judgmental overconfidence, self-monitoring and trading performance in an experimental financial market

  2005cited by this paper
• Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/bdm.495 When Effortful Thinking Influences Judgmental Anchoring: Differential Effects of Forewarning and Incentives on Self-generated and Externally Provided Anchors

  2005cited by this paper
• Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

  2004cited by this paper
• Supply Chain Decision Making: Will Shorter Cycle Times and Shared Point-of-Sale Information Necessarily Help?

  2004cited by this paper
• The affective costs of overconfidence

  2004cited by this paper
• Stability and variability in the realism of confidence judgments over time, content domain, and gender

  2003cited by this paper
• The Role of Individual Differences in the Accuracy of Confidence Judgments

  2002cited by this paper
• A comparison of methods to test mediation and other intervening variable effects.

  2002cited by this paper
• Foundations of Stochastic Inventory Theory

  2002cited by this paper
• Ecological and person-oriented aspects of metacognitive processes in test-taking.

  2001cited by this paper
• Jeppesen Uses a Dynamic-Programming-Based DSS to Manage Inventory

  2001cited by this paper
• Multilevel Modeling of Individual and Group Level Mediated Effects

  2001influential reference
• Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: Differential Processing of Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors

  2001influential reference
• Overcoming the Inevitable Anchoring Effect: Considering the Opposite Compensates for Selective Accessibility

  2000cited by this paper
• Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution: Experimental Evidence.: Experimental Evidence.

  2000influential reference
• " I know I know it, I know I saw it": The stability of the confidence–accuracy relationship across domains

  1999influential reference
• Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask.

  1999cited by this paper
• Mining on the "no man's land" between intelligence and personality.

  1999cited by this paper
• Self-confidence and performance on tests of cognitive abilities

  1997cited by this paper
• Thurstonian and Brunswikian origins of uncertainty in judgment: a sampling model of confidence in sensory discrimination.

  1997cited by this paper
• Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty Through Accurate Response to Early Sales

  1996cited by this paper
• Instability of individual differences in the association between confidence judgments and memory performance

  1996cited by this paper
• Confidence judgments in studies of individual differences

  1996cited by this paper
• Age differences in the realism of confidence judgements: A calibration study using tests of fluid and crystallized intelligence

  1996cited by this paper
• Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure☆

  1996cited by this paper
• Measures of Anchoring in Estimation Tasks

  1995cited by this paper
• A comparison of strategies for reducing interval overconfidence in group judgments

  1995cited by this paper
• Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking

  1993cited by this paper
• Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis

  1991cited by this paper
• Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment

  1989cited by this paper
• Decision traps : ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them

  1989influential reference
• Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success

  1988cited by this paper
• Two methods of reducing overconfidence

  1987cited by this paper
• The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations.

  1986influential reference
• Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

  1984cited by this paper
• Three-Point Approximations for Continuous Random Variables

  1983cited by this paper
• Judgment under uncertainty: Debiasing

  1982cited by this paper
• Judgment under uncertainty: A progress report on the training of probability assessors

  1982cited by this paper
• Reasons for confidence.

  1980cited by this paper
• Training for calibration.

  1980cited by this paper
• Optimal Inventory Policy.

  1951influential reference

• Bedfellows? Managerial Optimism and Optimistic Alignment in Collaborative Innovation

  2026cites this paper
• Financing Overconfident Retailers: Bank Loan or Trade Credit?

  2026cites this paper
• A Manager and an AI Walk into a Bar: Does ChatGPT Make Biased Decisions Like We Do?

  2025cites this paper
• Supply chain coordination with a wholesale price contract for behavioral decision-makers

  2025cites this paper
• Do People Willfully Ignore Decision Support? Evidence from an Online Experiment

  2025cites this paper
• Newsvendor stockouts and option discriminability

  2025cites this paper
• Newsvendor Decisions under Stochastic and Strategic Uncertainties: Theory and Experimental Evidence

  2025cites this paper
• Development and validation of a scale to assess overconfidence in small business decision making

  2025cites this paper
• Robust Decisions of Omnichannel Retail Operations for an Overconfident Manufacturer Considering Short Life-Cycle Products and Cap-and-Offset Policy

  2025influential citation
• Large Language Newsvendor: Decision Biases and Cognitive Mechanisms

  2025cites this paper
• Supply chain coordination of counter-seasonal fresh produce under the farmer’s overconfidence

  2025cites this paper
• The Impact of Overconfidence and Stochastic Lead Time Forecasting on the Bullwhip Effect

  2025cites this paper
• Analysis of overconfidence effect on price-setting newsvendor problems with limited distributional information

  2025cites this paper
• Managing Service Systems with Overconfident Customers

  2025cites this paper
• Análise da Influência da Heurística da Ancoragem na Tomada de Decisão Para Estudantes de Contabilidade

  2025cites this paper
• Newsvendor overconfidence and supply uncertainty: Pull-to- or push-from-center?

  2025cites this paper
• Cooperative Supervision of Livestreaming E-commerce Based on Stochastic Evolutionary Game and Overconfidence

  2025cites this paper
• Demand Forecast Investment by Overconfident Retailer in Supply Chains

  2025cites this paper
• Thinking orientation and overconfidence: a newsvendor study

  2024cites this paper
• Newsvendor overconfidence and advertising

  2024cites this paper
• Is green optimism good for the environment but bad for firms?—A study on green optimism in a supply chain

  2024cites this paper
• A newsvendor model with multiple reference points: Target-setting for aspirational newsvendors

  2024cites this paper
• Guiding supervisors in artificial intelligence-enabled forecasting: Understanding the impacts of salience and detail on decision-making

  2024cites this paper
• Different methods elicit different belief distributions.

  2024cites this paper
• Predicting mean and variance in inventory order decisions

  2024influential citation
• Overconfidence and the Pursuit of High-Status Positions: A Test of Two Behavioral Strategies

  2024cites this paper
• Effects of behavioral bias regarding demand forecasting in a competitive market

  2024cites this paper
• Explainability increases trust resilience in intelligent agents.

  2024cites this paper
• Newsvendor Competition with Endogenous Biases

  2024influential citation
• Characterizing the Retailer's Preference for Demand–Control and Demand–Promotion Efforts

  2024cites this paper
• The Influence of MBTI on Newsvendor Decision-Making

  2024cites this paper
• Holding Diverse Market Beliefs by Firms:Information Flow, Profit Performances, and Channel Structure

  2024cites this paper
• Learning Decisions Offline from Censored Observations with ε-insensitive Operational Costs

  2024cites this paper
• Locus of control and the preference for agency

  2024cites this paper
• Experience Minimizes the Pull-to-Center Effect in Newsvendor Decisions

  2024cites this paper
• Financing an overconfident distribution channel

  2024influential citation
• Decision behaviour and performance in a paired newsvendor: The role of peer effects

  2024influential citation
• Full Quantity or Full Credit? Choosing the Right Buyback Policy for a Behavioral Retailer

  2024cites this paper
• Multiproduct newsvendor with cross-selling and narrow-bracketing behavior using data mining methods

  2023cites this paper
• A dynamic trust consensus model considering individual overconfidence

  2023cites this paper
• Firms' diverse market beliefs can facilitate information sharing and improve profit performance

  2023cites this paper
• Product Pricing and Design Strategy in Platform-Based Collaborative Innovation With Cognitive Bias

  2023influential citation
• Aggregating or Interacting?: The Role of Individual Overconfidence

  2023cites this paper
• Effects of Revenue-Sharing Contracts and Overconfidence on Innovation for Key Components

  2023cites this paper
• Supply option purchasing decisions via mismatch cost minimization

  2023cites this paper
• The effect of overconfidence in a robust competing game

  2023cites this paper
• Collection responsibility and freight insurance strategies for an e-tailing supply chain in the presence of managerial optimism

  2023cites this paper
• Unpacking the cognitive processes of the boundedly rational newsvendor

  2023cites this paper
• The Distributionally Robust Inventory Strategy of the Overconfident Retailer under Supply Uncertainty

  2023cites this paper
• Information Disclosure under Competition in Sharing Systems

  2023cites this paper
• Decentralized Inventory Transshipments with Quantal Response Equilibrium

  2023cites this paper
• When will an overconfident entrant in the two-sided market do more good than harm?

  2023cites this paper
• Decision making under service‐level contracts: The role of cost saliency

  2022cites this paper
• Pricing strategy in a dual-channel supply chain with overconfident consumers

  2022cites this paper
• Naive Newsvendor Adjustments: Are They Always Detrimental?

  2022cites this paper
• Medical capacity investment for epidemic disease: The effects of policymaker's confidence and public trust

  2022cites this paper
• Allocation of inventory responsibilities in overconfident supply chains

  2022cites this paper
• Prior Experience of Managers and Maladaptive Responses to Performance Feedback: Evidence from Mutual Funds

  2022cites this paper
• Demand forecasts with judgement bias in a newsvendor problem

  2022cites this paper
• Green Supply Chain Decisions and Revenue-Sharing Contracts under Manufacturers’ Overconfidence

  2022influential citation
• Inventory control under different forms of uncertainty: Ambiguity and stochastic variability

  2022cites this paper
• Green innovation in logistics service supply chain: the impacts of relationship strength and overconfidence

  2022cites this paper
• Overprecise forecasts

  2022cites this paper
• Evaluating human behaviour in response to AI recommendations for judgemental forecasting

  2022cites this paper
• Ordering decisions under supply uncertainty and inventory record inaccuracy: An experimental investigation

  2022cites this paper
• How retailer overconfidence affects supply chain transparency with manufacturer encroachment

  2022cites this paper
• Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions

  2022cites this paper
• Does constructing a belief distribution truly reduce overconfidence?

  2022cites this paper
• Decision-maker's overconfidence and international performance: the role of the adoption of intuitive practices

  2022cites this paper
• Will Being an Angel Bring More Harm than Good? Altruistic Newsvendors with Different Risk Attitudes

  2022cites this paper
• Revisiting the Causes of the Pull-to-Centre Effect: Evidence From China

  2022influential citation
• Ordering behavior in a supply chain with customers that respond to changes in service level

  2022cites this paper
• Inventory Management of Perishable Goods with Overconfident Retailers

  2022cites this paper
• Optimal decision in MC supply chain with overconfident retailer based on the newsvendor model

  2021influential citation
• Expectation-Maximization Algorithm of Gaussian Mixture Model for Vehicle-Commodity Matching in Logistics Supply Chain

  2021cites this paper
• Inventory decision-making biases: a review and suggestions for future research

  2021cites this paper
• Strategy selection of inventory financing based on overconfident retailer

  2021influential citation
• Behavior in rationing inventory across retail channels

  2021cites this paper
• Inventory strategy of the risk averse supplier and overconfident manufacturer with uncertain demand

  2021cites this paper
• Make-to-order supply chain coordination through option contract with random yields and overconfidence

  2021cites this paper
• COO’s overconfidence and the firm’s inventory performance

  2021cites this paper
• Impacts of barter exchange and decision biases in a two-level supply chain under pull contract

  2021cites this paper
• Managing Overconfident Newsvendors: A Target‐Setting Approach

  2021influential citation
• Effects of CEO and COO overconfidence on the firm's inventory leanness

  2021cites this paper
• Nominal effect vs actual effect: overconfidence in a consignment omnichannel

  2021cites this paper
• Ordering and interest rate strategies in platform finance with an overconfident and commerce retailer

  2021cites this paper
• From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting

  2021cites this paper
• The upstream innovation with an overconfident manufacturer in a supply chain

  2021cites this paper
• Behavioural Operations Management: Trends and Insights

  2021cites this paper
• Supply chain contracting with competing regretful retailers

  2021cites this paper
• Can cost sharing contracts coordinate green supply chains based on manufacturers’ overconfidence

  2021cites this paper
• A literature review on the anomalies observed in the newsvendor ordering behaviour

  2021cites this paper
• Centralized or Decentralized Transfer Prices: A Behavioral Approach for Improving Supply Chain Coordination

  2021cites this paper
• Transshipment Between Overconfident Newsvendors

  2021influential citation
• A joint strategy based on ordering and insurance for mitigating the effects of supply chain disruption on risk-averse firms

  2021cites this paper
• Measuring How Decision Support Systems Improve Newsvendors’ Performance: The Subjects’ Version

  2021cites this paper
• Behavioral Inventory Management

  2021cites this paper
• Heterogeneity, asymmetry and applicability of behavioral newsvendor models

  2021cites this paper
• Full Quantity or Full Credit? Choosing the Right Buyback Policy for A Loss-Averse Retailer

  2021cites this paper
• Investor Overconfidence in Experimental Asset Markets across Market States

  2020cites this paper