How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging

F. Pannullo,Duncan Lee,E. Waclawski,A. Leyland

Published 2016 in Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

ABSTRACT

Highlights • We explored the sensitivity of the pollution-health effect to three factors.• Estimation of NO2, choice of deprivation and choice of spatial autocorrelation model.• Choice of these factors leads to a wide variation in pollution-health effects.• BMA is utilised to estimate an overall effect while accounting for model uncertainty.• Overall, a positive but borderline pollution-health effect was obtained.

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