Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

Xu Yue,Xu Yue,L. Mickley,J. Logan,R. Hudman,R. Hudman,Maria Val Martin,R. Yantosca

Published 2015 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

ABSTRACT

Abstract. We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p

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