Beyond climate envelopes: bio‐climate modelling accords with observed 25‐year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles

Climate envelope models (CEMs) are used to assess species’ vulnerability to predicted changes in climate, based on their distributions. Extinction risk, however, also depends on demographic parameters. Accordingly, we use CEMs for 18 seabird species to test three hypotheses: (i) population sizes are larger in areas where CEMs fitted using distribution data predict more suitable climate; (ii) the presence of this relationship (Hypothesis i) is related to a species’ foraging ecology; and (iii) species whose distributions and population sizes conformed most closely to indices of climatic suitability in the mid‐1980s experienced the largest population changes following climatic change between 1986 and 2010.

• Publication year

  2015

• Venue

  Diversity and Distributions

• Publication date

  2015-02-01

• Fields of study

  Biology, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1111/ddi.12272
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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