An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations

Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20th and late 21st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

• Publication year

  2009

• Venue

  PLoS ONE

• Publication date

  2009-03-04

• Fields of study

  Biology, Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0004678PMID 19259270PMCID 2649536
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Climate change 2007: the physical science basis

  2010cited by this paper
• ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ABUNDANCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF SPECIES

  2008influential reference
• Is sociality associated with high longevity in North American birds?

  2008cited by this paper
• Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds

  2008cited by this paper
• Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change

  2008cited by this paper
• Predicting Oblivion: Are Existing Models Up to the Task?

  2007cited by this paper
• The 2010 Biodiversity Indicators: Challenges for Science and Policy

  2007cited by this paper
• Projected Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on the Global Diversity of Birds

  2007cited by this paper
• Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming.

  2006cited by this paper
• Ecology. How does climate change affect biodiversity?

  2006cited by this paper
• Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity

  2006cited by this paper
• Migration rate limitations on climate change‐induced range shifts in Cape Proteaceae

  2006cited by this paper
• Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

  2006cited by this paper
• Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low‐latitude range boundaries

  2006cited by this paper
• How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?

  2006cited by this paper
• Model‐based uncertainty in species range prediction

  2006cited by this paper
• Developing indicators for European birds

  2005cited by this paper
• Evidence for the impact of global warming on the long–term population dynamics of common birds

  2004cited by this paper
• The impact of climate change on birds: Impact of climate change on birds

  2004cited by this paper
• Model selection and multimodel inference : a practical information-theoretic approach

  2003cited by this paper
• Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

  2003cited by this paper
• A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

  2003cited by this paper
• Ecological responses to recent climate change

  2002cited by this paper
• Special report on emissions scenarios

  2000cited by this paper
• The EBCC Atlas of European Breeding Birds

  1997cited by this paper

• Mapping farmers’ perceptions of climate risks and adaptive vulnerability in semi-arid Ghana

  2026cites this paper
• Effects of heat stress and green cover on urban birds in the megacity of Bengaluru.

  2025cites this paper
• The interplay of climate change, urbanization, and species traits shapes European butterfly population trends

  2025cites this paper
• Biodiversity Unveiled: A Study of Faunal Diversity and Student Conservation Mindset at V.H.N.S.N. College

  2025cites this paper
• Exceptionally preserved eggs show philopatric resilience of phasianids to environmental fragmentation during the Middle–Late Miocene transition in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula

  2025cites this paper
• The population trend of the largest breeding colony of the Indian Swiftlet Aerodramus unicolor: is it on the verge of extinction?

  2024cites this paper
• Waterbird count at Narathali waterbody, Buxa Tiger Reserve in northern Bengal for a decade (2009–2019) with a note on raptors

  2024cites this paper
• Environment and climate change: Influence on biodiversity, present scenario, and future prospect

  2024cites this paper
• Climate-driven range shifts of Levaillant’s Woodpecker Picus vaillantii in the Western Mediterranean

  2024cites this paper
• Population trends are more strongly linked to environmental change and species traits in birds than mammals

  2024cites this paper
• Signs of foraging by wild boar as an indication of disturbance to ground-nesting birds

  2024cites this paper
• Accelerated farmland bird population declines in European countries after their recent EU accession.

  2024cites this paper
• Remote and local threats are associated with population change in Taiwanese migratory waterbirds

  2023cites this paper
• Climate change threatens the future viability of translocated populations

  2023cites this paper
• Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan

  2023cites this paper
• Drivers of the changing abundance of European birds at two spatial scales

  2023cites this paper
• Effect of environmental drivers of fish assemblage and diversity patterns in temporal scale in Mongra Reservoir: A case study from one of the tributaries of Mahanadi Basin, Central India

  2023cites this paper
• MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Wintering Distribution of Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) under Climate Change in China

  2023cites this paper
• Evaluating temporal turnover in avian species richness in a Mediterranean semiarid region: Different responses to elevation and forest cover

  2023cites this paper
• Impacts of abiotic factors on the growth of three commercial biological control agents, on the growth and mycotoxinogenesis of Fusarium graminearum and on their interaction.

  2023cites this paper
• Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

  2023cites this paper
• Taiwan's Breeding Bird Survey reveals very few declining species

  2023cites this paper
• НОВОЕ МЕСТО ЗИМОВКИ СЕРОГО ГУСЯ ANSER ANSER (ANSERIFORMES) НА ЮГЕ ЕВРОПЕЙСКОЙ РОССИИ, "Наука юга России"

  2023cites this paper
• Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of American Flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber) in Cuba

  2023cites this paper
• A framework for climate change adaptation indicators for the natural environment

  2022cites this paper
• A comprehensive but practical methodology for selecting biological indicators for long-term monitoring

  2022cites this paper
• An early warning system for highly pathogenic viruses borne by waterbird species and related dynamics of climate change in the Caspian Sea region: Outlines of a concept

  2022cites this paper
• European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism

  2022cites this paper
• ЭКСПЕРИМЕНТАЛЬНЫЙ ПОДХОД И НОВЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ В СОХРАНЕНИИ ГУСЕОБРАЗНЫХ, "Наука юга России"

  2022cites this paper
• Temporal transferability of species abundance models to study the changes of breeding bird species based on land cover changes

  2022cites this paper
• The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

  2022influential citation
• Threatened songbird Liocichla omeiensis impacted by climate‐induced outbreak of the moth Pantana phyllostachysae: An example of the impact of climate change through multi‐species interactions

  2022cites this paper
• Reproductive phenology and floral visitors in Rhododendron arboreum (Ericaceae) in a temperate forest of Garhwal Himalaya

  2022cites this paper
• Climate-dependent scenarios of land use for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the New Aquitaine region

  2022cites this paper
• Acoustic approach as an alternative to human-based survey in bird biodiversity monitoring in agricultural meadows

  2022cites this paper
• Species Traits Drive Long-Term Population Trends of Common Breeding Birds in Northern Italy

  2021cites this paper
• An iconic messenger of climate change? Predicting the range dynamics of the European Bee-eater (Merops apiaster)

  2021cites this paper
• Long-term and large-scale multispecies dataset tracking population changes of common European breeding birds

  2021cites this paper
• Where do thrushes migrating to France come from? Within-France distribution and temporal changes over 70 years

  2021cites this paper
• Population trends of passage and wintering barn swallows (Hirundo Rustica) in Peninsular Malaysia

  2021cites this paper
• Spatial Impacts of Climate Change on Birds

  2021cites this paper
• Development of a framework to predict the effects of climate change on birds

  2021cites this paper
• Anthropogenic drivers of avian community turnover from local to regional scales

  2021cites this paper
• Maskeli Örümcek Kuşunun (Lanius nubicus, Licthenstein 1823) İklim Değişimi Etkisi Altındaki Dağılımı

  2021cites this paper
• Biosystems Diversity

  2021cites this paper
• Bird Diversity in Mediterranean Pine and Mixed Forests

  2021cites this paper
• Recovery of bird communities following the construction of a large-scale hydroelectric dam

  2021cites this paper
• Habitat based fish assemblage and distribution pattern in a large reservoir of peninsular India

  2021cites this paper
• Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species

  2021cites this paper
• Relationship between niche breadth and range shifts of Rhinopoma muscatellum (Chiroptera: Rhinopomatidae) in climate change scenarios in arid and semiarid mountainous region of Iran

  2021cites this paper
• Population Decline of the Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus aquitanicus in the Central Pyrenees

  2020cites this paper
• Broedvogels in Vlaanderen 2013-2018

  2020cites this paper
• Past and future climate-driven shifts in the distribution of a warm-adapted bird species, the European Roller Coracias garrulus

  2020cites this paper
• A state-of-the-art review on birds as indicators of biodiversity: Advances, challenges, and future directions

  2020cites this paper
• Identifying reliable indicators of fitness in polar bears

  2020cites this paper
• Disentangling the relative roles of climate and land cover change in driving the long‐term population trends of European migratory birds

  2020cites this paper
• Can protected areas buffer short-term population changes of resident bird species in a period of intensified forest harvesting?

  2020cites this paper
• Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs

  2020cites this paper
• The expanding distribution of the Indian Peafowl (Pavo cristatus) as an indicator of changing climate in Kerala, southern India: A modelling study using MaxEnt

  2020cites this paper
• Feather stable isotope (δ2H) measurements suggest no historical variation in latitudinal origin of migrants in two declining songbirds

  2020cites this paper
• Two Surveys Per Spring Are Enough to Obtain Robust Population Trends of Common and Widespread Birds in Yearly Monitoring Programmes

  2020influential citation
• Knowledge Gaps or Change of Distribution Ranges? Explaining New Records of Birds in the Ecuadorian Tumbesian Region of Endemism

  2020cites this paper
• Hatching failure and accumulation of organic pollutants through the terrestrial food web of a declining songbird in Western Europe.

  2019cites this paper
• Population responses of bird populations to climate change on two continents vary with species’ ecological traits but not with direction of change in climate suitability

  2019cites this paper
• Machine Learning for Identifying an Endangered Brazilian Psittacidae Species

  2019cites this paper
• Modelling climate influences on population dynamics and diurnal time budget of the Shelduck (Tadorna tadorna) wintering in Ramsar wetlands of Algeria

  2019cites this paper
• CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform

  2019cites this paper
• Trait‐based climate vulnerability assessments in data‐rich systems: An application to eastern Bering Sea fish and invertebrate stocks

  2019cites this paper
• Using hierarchical spatial models to assess the occurrence of an island endemism: the case of Salamandra corsica

  2019cites this paper
• Autumn temperatures at African wintering grounds affect body condition of two passerine species during spring migration

  2019cites this paper
• Comparison of fruit tree richness and abundance as an indicator of food resource availability for the endangered Tauraco bannermani in Mount Oku and Mount Mbam, Western Highlands of Cameroon

  2019cites this paper
• THE IMPACT OF THE GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROP’S VALUE ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF AN ECOSYSTEM’S BIOMASS

  2019cites this paper
• Antagonistic effect of natural habitat conversion on community adjustment to climate warming in nonbreeding waterbirds

  2019cites this paper
• Organic farming favours bird communities and their resilience to climate change in Mediterranean vineyards

  2019cites this paper
• Ignoring biotic interactions overestimates climate change effects: The potential response of the spotted nutcracker to changes in climate and resource plants

  2019cites this paper
• Does functional homogenization accompany taxonomic homogenization of British birds and how do biotic factors and climate affect these processes?

  2018cites this paper
• Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally

  2018cites this paper
• Assessing Long-Term Hydrological Impact of Climate Change Using an Ensemble Approach and Comparison with Global Gridded Model-A Case Study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

  2018cites this paper
• Projected avifaunal responses to climate change across the U.S. National Park System

  2018cites this paper
• Making the best of a Human modified Habitat; an Assessment of Avian Distribution and Diversity in Federal College of Education (Technical) Gombe. Gombe State- Nigeria

  2018cites this paper
• Climate change vulnerability assessment of species

  2018cites this paper
• High‐productivity vegetation is important for lessening bird declines during prolonged drought

  2018cites this paper
• Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

  2018cites this paper
• Long‐term monitoring of an amphibian community after a climate change‐ and infectious disease‐driven species extirpation

  2018cites this paper
• Climate Change Impacts on Bird Species

  2018cites this paper
• Bird Species

  2018cites this paper
• Variations in pest bird density in Argentinean agroecosystems in relation to land use and/or cover, vegetation productivity and climate

  2018cites this paper
• Està afectant el canvi climàtic a les poblacions d'aus a Menorca?

  2018cites this paper
• Importance des politiques de conservation pour faciliter l'ajustement des communautés d'oiseaux d'eau hivernants au réchauffement climatique en Méditerranée

  2018cites this paper
• Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

  2018cites this paper
• Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

  2017cites this paper
• Factores bióticos y abióticos responsables de la distribución e incidencia de batrachochytrium dendrobatidis en poblaciones de anfibios de zonas templadas

  2017cites this paper
• Global change impacts on species distributions: obstacles and solutions to integrate climate and 1 land use 2

  2017cites this paper
• Assessing National Biodiversity Trends for Rocky and Coral Reefs through the Integration of Citizen Science and Scientific Monitoring Programs

  2017cites this paper
• Indicators of the Effects of the Urban Greening on Birds: The Case of Barcelona

  2017cites this paper
• Monitoring Essential Biodiversity Variables at the Species Level

  2017cites this paper
• Corrigendum: Assessing National Biodiversity Trends for Rocky and Coral Reefs through the Integration of Citizen Science and Scientific Monitoring Programs

  2017cites this paper
• Modeling the impacts of climate change on Species of Concern (birds) in South Central U.S. based on bioclimatic variables

  2017cites this paper
• Breeding phenological response to spring weather conditions in common Finnish birds: resident species respond stronger than migratory species

  2017cites this paper
• Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

  2017cites this paper