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Derivation and internal validation of a mortality risk index for aged people living with HIV: The Dat'AIDS score

M. Hentzien,C. Delpierre,P. Puglièse,C. Allavena,C. Jacomet,M. Valantin,A. Cabié,L. Cuzin,D. Rey,F. Bani-Sadr,M. Dramé

Published 2018 in PLoS ONE

ABSTRACT

Objective The objective was to develop a multivariable prognostic index for overall mortality over a five-year span integrating classical HIV biomarkers and comorbidities in people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 60 or older. Design Prospective multicenter cohort study from the French Dat’AIDS cohort. Methods All HIV-1 infected patients aged 60 years or older on 1st January 2008 were included. Sociodemographic data, CD4 cell count, CD4 nadir, HIV viral load, history of comorbidities, hepatitis co-infections and laboratory parameters at baseline were considered as potential prognostic variables. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Results Among 1415 patients included, we derived a score comprising the following predictors: Age (65–74: 1 point; ≥75: 8 points), CD4 cell count (200–349: 3 points; <200: 6 points), non-HIV related cancer (6 points), cardiovascular disease (8 points), estimated glomerular filtration rate (30–59 mL/min/1.73m2: 5 points; <30mL/min/1.73m2: 16 points), cirrhosis (13 points), low body mass index (<18.5 kg/m2, 10 points), anemia (6 points). Mean observed score was 7.0 ± 8.0 and ranged from 0 to 45. Score categories defined 4 risk groups for mortality: low, moderate, high and very high risk (5-year survival probability 0.95 (95%CI[0.93–0.97]), 0.90 (95%CI[0.87–0.92]), 0.77 (95%CI[0.68–0.84]) and 0.54 (95%CI[0.43–0.63]) respectively). The score showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.76) and calibration. Conclusions We propose a multivariable prognostic score for mortality among PLHIV aged 60 or over, who will become the predominant population in future years in western populations. It could be a useful tool for research, for developing preventive and treatment strategies according to risk group, and for risk assessment by clinicians.

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