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Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Marta S. Shocket,S. Ryan,E. Mordecai

Published 2018 in bioRxiv

ABSTRACT

Temperature impacts the physiology of ectotherms, including vectors that transmit disease. While thermal biology predicts nonlinear effects of temperature on vector and pathogen traits that drive disease transmission, the empirical relationship between temperature and transmission remains unknown for most vector-borne pathogens. We built a mechanistic model to estimate the thermal response of Ross River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen of humans in Australia, the Pacific Islands, and potentially emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks at moderate temperatures (26.4°C) and declines to zero at low (17.0°C) and high (31.5°C) temperatures. The model predicted broad patterns of disease across Australia. First, transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics and sub-tropics but seasonal in temperate zones. Second, nationwide human cases peak seasonally as predicted from population-weighted seasonal temperatures. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear, mechanistic models for inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting responses to climate change.

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