Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change

Future effects of climate change on ocean fisheries could be more than offset by management reforms for current fisheries. The world’s oceans supply food and livelihood to billions of people, yet species’ shifting geographic ranges and changes in productivity arising from climate change are expected to profoundly affect these benefits. We ask how improvements in fishery management can offset the negative consequences of climate change; we find that the answer hinges on the current status of stocks. The poor current status of many stocks combined with potentially maladaptive responses to range shifts could reduce future global fisheries yields and profits even more severely than previous estimates have suggested. However, reforming fisheries in ways that jointly fix current inefficiencies, adapt to fisheries productivity changes, and proactively create effective transboundary institutions could lead to a future with higher profits and yields compared to what is produced today.

• Publication year

  2018

• Venue

  Science Advances

• Publication date

  2018-08-01

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Business, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aao1378PMID 30167455PMCID 6114984
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change

  2017cited by this paper
• Transboundary research in fisheries

  2017cited by this paper
• state of world fisheries and aquaculture

  2017cited by this paper
• Effects of biological, economic and management factors on tuna and billfish stock status

  2017cited by this paper
• Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

  2016influential reference
• Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes

  2016influential reference
• International Fisheries Agreements with a Shifting Stock

  2016cited by this paper
• The future of food and agriculture: Trends and challenges

  2016cited by this paper
• Game theory and fish wars: The case of the Northeast Atlantic mackerel fishery

  2015cited by this paper
• Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species’ distribution and abundance changes

  2015cited by this paper
• Global comparisons of medians and other quantiles in a one-way design when there are tied values

  2015cited by this paper
• Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

  2015cited by this paper
• Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change

  2015cited by this paper
• Close the High Seas to Fishing?

  2014cited by this paper
• Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

  2014cited by this paper
• Reflections on the success of traditional fisheries management

  2014cited by this paper
• Sharing a Migrating Fish Stock

  2013cited by this paper
• Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities

  2013cited by this paper
• Global imprint of climate change on marine life

  2013cited by this paper
• Lagged social-ecological responses to climate and range shifts in fisheries

  2012cited by this paper
• The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems

  2011cited by this paper
• Tolerance limit for fish growth exceeded by warming waters

  2011cited by this paper
• Fine-scale analysis of arrowtooth flounder Atherestes stomias catch rates reveals spatial trends in abundance

  2011cited by this paper
• Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries

  2011cited by this paper
• The niche, biogeography and species interactions

  2011cited by this paper
• Long‐term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices

  2011cited by this paper
• The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

  2010cited by this paper
• Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa

  2010cited by this paper
• Large‐scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

  2010cited by this paper
• Developments on fisheries management in Peru : The new individual vessel quota system for the anchoveta fishery

  2009cited by this paper
• Rebuilding Global Fisheries

  2009cited by this paper
• Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

  2009cited by this paper
• Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

  2009cited by this paper
• Game theory and the development of resource management policy: the case of international fisheries

  2009cited by this paper
• The tragedy of the commons in international fisheries: an empirical examination.

  2009cited by this paper
• The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  2007cited by this paper
• Applying the basin model: Assessing habitat suitability of young-of-the-year demersal fishes on the New York Bight continental shelf

  2006cited by this paper
• Climate Change and Distribution Shifts in Marine Fishes

  2005cited by this paper
• Abundance-distribution relationships and conservation of exploited marine fishes

  2004cited by this paper
• Changes in the spatial structure of Grand Bank yellowtail flounder: testing MacCall's basin hypothesis

  2004cited by this paper
• Climate change: Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic

  2001cited by this paper
• Distribution changes and abundance of northern cod (Gadus morhua), 1981-1993.

  1997cited by this paper
• Transboundary marine fisheries management. Recent developments and elements of analysis

  1997cited by this paper
• Fixed exploitation rate strategies for coping with effects of climate change

  1996cited by this paper
• Seventy years' observations of changes in distribution and abundance of zooplankton and intertidal organisms in the western English Channel in relation to rising sea temperature

  1995cited by this paper
• THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

  1990cited by this paper
• Dynamic Geography of Marine Fish Populations

  1990cited by this paper
• A generalized stock production model

  1969cited by this paper

• Fishery management for food and nutrition security in Peru under a changing climate

  2026cites this paper
• Long-term warming reduces fish biomass, but heatwaves shift it.

  2026cites this paper
• Applying data-limited models (CMSY + + and LBB) to assess the stock status of Penaeus kerathurus (Forskål, 1775) in the Central Mediterranean (GSA 12)

  2026cites this paper
• Bias correction for integrated climate projection modeling and its effect on downstream biological models

  2026cites this paper
• Innovative Approaches to Modelling and Forecasting in Fisheries: A Critical Review

  2026cites this paper
• Amending the European fishing fleet segmentation based on machine learning and multivariate statistics

  2025cites this paper
• Predicting Habitat Suitability and Range Dynamics of Three Ecologically Important Fish in East Asian Waters Under Projected Climate Change

  2025cites this paper
• Understanding the application of digital technologies in aquaculture supply chains through a systematic literature review

  2025cites this paper
• Characterization of management practices and ecological challenges of sustainable recreational fishery management in Hungary (Central Europe)

  2025cites this paper
• Potential Impacts of Ocean Warming on Habitat Preferences of the Eastern Little Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) in the Makassar Strait

  2025cites this paper
• Impacts of climate change on the distribution of the Pacific red snapper (Lutjanus peru) in Mexico

  2025cites this paper
• Marine communities do not follow the paradigm of increasing similarity through time

  2025cites this paper
• Trends in Fishery Ecosystem Stability in the East China Sea under Dual Pressures of Fishing and Global Warming.

  2025cites this paper
• Disentangling the historical impacts of warming and fishing on exploited freshwater fish populations

  2025cites this paper
• Temperature alters thermal tolerance and physiological response to simulated angling in paddlefish.

  2025cites this paper
• Genetic Structuring and Connectivity of European Squid Populations in the Mediterranean Sea Based on Mitochondrial COI Data

  2025cites this paper
• Automatic Identification System (AIS)-Based Spatiotemporal Allocation of Catch and Fishing Effort for Purse Seine Fisheries in Korean Waters

  2025cites this paper
• Measurements, mechanisms, and management recommendations for how marine protected areas can provide climate resilience

  2025cites this paper
• Are subarctic nations’ fisheries benefiting from climate change?

  2025cites this paper
• Mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental change

  2025cites this paper
• Evaluating ecosystem caps on fishery yield in the context of climate stress and predation

  2025cites this paper
• Contrast in the density and biomass of fish in a reef system with different fishing intensity in the Mexican Caribbean

  2025cites this paper
• FishPoll – a serious game about sharing moving fish stocks under climate change

  2025cites this paper
• Quota Allocation Policies in U.S. Federal Fisheries Management and Implications for Climate Resilience

  2025cites this paper
• surveyjoin: a standardized database of scientific trawl surveys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

  2025cites this paper
• Winners and losers in U.S. marine aquaculture under climate change

  2024cites this paper
• Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species

  2024cites this paper
• Downscaled climate change threats to United States freshwater finfish aquaculture.

  2024cites this paper
• Comparative analysis of climate-induced habitat shift of economically significant species with diverse ecological preferences in the Northwest Pacific

  2024cites this paper
• How does a sustainable ocean economy affect national GDP?

  2024cites this paper
• Efficacy of fisheries management strategies in mitigating ecological, social, and economic risks of climate warming in China.

  2024cites this paper
• Rising temperatures, falling fisheries: causes and consequences of crossing the tipping point in a small-pelagic community

  2024cites this paper
• Lower fishing effort would benefit fish stocks and fisheries profitability in the Gulf of Lion in the Mediterranean Sea

  2024cites this paper
• The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web.

  2024cites this paper
• European anchovy's abundance, more affected by climatic conditions than fishing activities in the northwest African waters.

  2024cites this paper
• Planning for climate change resilience—Collation, update and assessment of Mozambique’s marine fisheries data and management

  2024cites this paper
• Knowns and Unknowns in Future Human Pressures on the Ocean

  2024cites this paper
• Climate winners: Adapting to shifting species in the New England supply chain

  2024cites this paper
• Twenty-five emerging questions when detecting, understanding, and predicting future fish distributions in a changing climate.

  2024cites this paper
• Water temperature affects somatic growth, body condition and oxygen and carbon otolith isotopes of stout whiting (Sillago robusta).

  2024cites this paper
• A study of the evolutionary game of carbon offset involving tourism stakeholders under incentive and constraint mechanisms

  2024cites this paper
• From land to deep sea: A continuum of cumulative human impacts on marine habitats in Atlantic Canada

  2024cites this paper
• Geolocated fish spawning habitats

  2024cites this paper
• Developing workflow and diagnostics for model selection of a vector autoregressive spatiotemporal (VAST) model in comparison to design-based indices

  2024cites this paper
• Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

  2024cites this paper
• Revisiting the climate change adaptation strategy of Jakarta's coastal communities

  2024cites this paper
• Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea

  2024cites this paper
• Robust fisheries management strategies under deep uncertainty

  2024cites this paper
• Potential impacts of ocean warming on energy flow and fisheries production in an overexploited ecosystem: Implication for effective fisheries management

  2024cites this paper
• Endocrine responses to environmental variation

  2024cites this paper
• Pan-Atlantic 3D distribution model incorporating water column for commercial fish

  2024cites this paper
• Climate change alters social‐ecological trade‐offs in achieving ocean futures' targets

  2024cites this paper
• Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario

  2024cites this paper
• Diverse pathways for climate resilience in marine fishery systems

  2023cites this paper
• Predicting Adaptations of Fish and Fishing Communities to Rapid Climate Velocities in Canadian Waters: A Systematic Review

  2023cites this paper
• Evaluating the efficacy of fisheries management strategies in China for achieving multiple objectives under climate change

  2023cites this paper
• Drivers of conflict and resilience in shifting transboundary fisheries

  2023cites this paper
• Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization.

  2023cites this paper
• Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change

  2023cites this paper
• Sustainable valorization approaches on crustacean wastes for the extraction of chitin, bioactive compounds and their applications - A review.

  2023cites this paper
• A synthetic control approach to estimate the effect of total allowable catches in the high seas

  2023cites this paper
• Fishery catch is affected by geographic expansion, fishing down food webs and climate change in Aotearoa, New Zealand

  2023cites this paper
• Evaluating adaptive management frameworks for data-limited crustacean fisheries.

  2023cites this paper
• A participatory climate vulnerability assessment for recreational tidal flats fisheries in Belize and The Bahamas

  2023cites this paper
• Adding to the mix – Challenges of mixed‐fisheries management in the North Sea under climate change and technical interactions

  2023cites this paper
• Adaptive fisheries responses may lead to climate maladaptation in the absence of access regulations

  2023cites this paper
• Climate change exacerbates nutrient disparities from seafood

  2023cites this paper
• Climate change scenarios in fisheries and aquatic conservation research

  2023cites this paper
• How can physiology best contribute to wildlife conservation in a warming world?

  2023cites this paper
• Redistribution of fisheries catch potential in Mediterranean and North European waters under climate change scenarios.

  2023cites this paper
• Research priorities for seafood-dependent livelihoods under ocean climate change extreme events

  2023cites this paper
• Sensitivity of fishery resources to climate change in the warm-temperate Southwest Atlantic Ocean

  2023cites this paper
• Transformational adaptation in marine fisheries

  2023cites this paper
• Ensemble projections of fish distribution in response to climate changes in the Yellow and Bohai Seas, China

  2023cites this paper
• Estimating global artisanal fishing fleet responses in an era of rapid climate and economic change

  2023cites this paper
• A study on the variation of the Korean marine ecosystem through biodiversity attributes

  2023cites this paper
• Seascape genomics of the pink abalone (Haliotis corrugata): An insight into a cross-border species in the northeast Pacific coast.

  2023cites this paper
• Managing for Climate Resilient Fisheries: Applications to the Southern Ocean

  2023cites this paper
• Cities resilient to climate change through natural heritage: a bibliometric review

  2023cites this paper
• Portable Stereo Chute Box Imaging System Design and Development for Fisheries

  2023cites this paper
• Expanding ocean food production under climate change

  2022cites this paper
• Climate impacts alter fisheries productivity and turnover on coral reefs

  2022cites this paper
• Reforming International Fisheries Law Can Increase Blue Carbon Sequestration

  2022cites this paper
• Ecological and social strategies for managing fisheries using the Resist‐Accept‐Direct (RAD) framework

  2022cites this paper
• Which factors can affect the productivity and dynamics of cod stocks in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak?

  2022cites this paper
• A global and regional view of the opportunity for climate-smart mariculture

  2022cites this paper
• A Blueprint for Ocean Literacy: EU4Ocean

  2022cites this paper
• Marine climate change risks to biodiversity and society in the ROPME Sea Area

  2022cites this paper
• Climate change or mismanagement?

  2022cites this paper
• Data-driven integrated assessment of global wild-caught seafood exported to Hong Kong by 2030 in different representative concentration and shared socioeconomic pathways

  2022cites this paper
• Double exposure to capitalist expansion and climatic change: a study of vulnerability on the Ghanaian coastal commodity frontier

  2022cites this paper
• Climate Change Impacts on Polar Marine Ecosystems: Toward Robust Approaches for Managing Risks and Uncertainties

  2022cites this paper
• Modeling Atlantic sea scallop ( Placopecten magellanicus ) scope for growth on the Northeast U.S. Shelf

  2022cites this paper
• Emerging trends in science and news of climate change threats to and adaptation of aquaculture

  2022cites this paper
• Climate change reduces the conservation benefits of tropical coastal ecosystems

  2022cites this paper
• Harvest control rules used in US federal fisheries management and implications for climate resilience

  2022cites this paper
• Assessing the potential vulnerability of sedimentary carbon stores to bottom trawling disturbance within the UK EEZ

  2022cites this paper
• Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change

  2022cites this paper
• Ten lessons on the resilience of the EU common fisheries policy towards climate change and fuel efficiency - A call for adaptive, flexible and well-informed fisheries management

  2022cites this paper
• Cascading effects of climate change on recreational marine flats fishes and fisheries

  2022cites this paper