Natural climate solutions for the United States

U.S. land management can contribute 1.2 Pg CO2e year−1 of greenhouse gas mitigation, 76% of which costs USD 50 Mg CO2e−1 or less. Limiting climate warming to <2°C requires increased mitigation efforts, including land stewardship, whose potential in the United States is poorly understood. We quantified the potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—21 conservation, restoration, and improved land management interventions on natural and agricultural lands—to increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. We found a maximum potential of 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) Pg CO2e year−1, the equivalent of 21% of current net annual emissions of the United States. At current carbon market prices (USD 10 per Mg CO2e), 299 Tg CO2e year−1 could be achieved. NCS would also provide air and water filtration, flood control, soil health, wildlife habitat, and climate resilience benefits.

• Publication year

  2018

• Venue

  Science Advances

• Publication date

  2018-11-01

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aat1869PMID 30443593PMCID 6235523
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• THE REFINEMENT TO THE 2006 IPCC GUIDELINES FOR NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES

  2019cited by this paper
• World agricultural production

  2019cited by this paper
• Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017

  2018cited by this paper
• Where the people are: Current trends and future potential targeted investments in urban trees for PM10 and temperature mitigation in 27 U.S. Cities

  2018cited by this paper
• Summary of Public Review Comments and Responses: Draft Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2016

  2018influential reference
• Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change.

  2018cited by this paper
• Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

  2018cited by this paper
• Natural climate solutions

  2017cited by this paper
• SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine learning

  2017cited by this paper
• The spatial distribution of soil organic carbon in tidal wetland soils of the continental United States

  2017cited by this paper
• The hepatectomy efficacy of huge hepatocellular carcinoma and its risk factors

  2017cited by this paper
• Clarifying the role of coastal and marine systems in climate mitigation

  2017cited by this paper
• US forest sector greenhouse mitigation potential and implications for nationally determined contributions

  2017cited by this paper
• Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

  2017cited by this paper
• Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

  2017cited by this paper
• Evaluation of Intensive "4R" Strategies for Decreasing Nitrous Oxide Emissions and Nitrogen Surplus in Rainfed Corn.

  2017cited by this paper
• Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass

  2017cited by this paper
• Potential for Additional Carbon Sequestration through Regeneration of Nonstocked Forest Land in the United States

  2017cited by this paper
• Financial viability and carbon payment potential of large-scale silvicultural intensification in logged dipterocarp forests in Indonesia

  2017cited by this paper
• Seagrass blue carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico: Stocks, losses from anthropogenic disturbance, and gains through seagrass restoration.

  2017cited by this paper
• The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Flood Damage Reduction in the Northeastern USA

  2017cited by this paper
• State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2017

  2017cited by this paper
• Soil carbon debt of 12,000 years of human land use

  2017cited by this paper
• Managing Appalachian hardwood stands using four management practices: 60-year results

  2017cited by this paper
• Rightsizing carbon dioxide removal

  2017cited by this paper
• Biochar stability in soil: meta‐analysis of decomposition and priming effects

  2016cited by this paper
• Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

  2016cited by this paper
• Establishment and Impact of Cover Crops Intersown into Corn

  2016cited by this paper
• Disturbance and the carbon balance of US forests: A quantitative review of impacts from harvests, fires, insects, and droughts

  2016cited by this paper
• Comparison of national level biomass maps for conterminous US: understanding pattern and causes of differences

  2016cited by this paper
• Attribution of net carbon change by disturbance type across forest lands of the conterminous United States

  2016cited by this paper
• CMS: Forest Carbon Stocks, Emissions, and Net Flux for the Conterminous US: 2005-2010

  2016cited by this paper
• Mapping impact of urbanization in the continental U.S. from 2001–2020

  2016cited by this paper
• Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from rice production through water-saving techniques: potential, adoption and empirical evidence.

  2016cited by this paper
• Greenhouse gas emissions as affected by different water management practices in temperate rice paddies

  2016cited by this paper
• Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands provide ecosystem service benefits that exceed land rental payment costs

  2016cited by this paper
• Farm Profits and Adoption of Precision Agriculture

  2016cited by this paper
• Pre-logging Treatment of Invasive Glossy Buckthorn (Frangula alnus Mill.) Promotes Regeneration of Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus L.)

  2016cited by this paper
• Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2014: Revisions to Natural Gas Distribution Emissions

  2016cited by this paper
• Variation of energy and carbon fluxes from a restored temperate freshwater wetland and implications for carbon market verification protocols

  2016cited by this paper
• Fortifying the forest: thinning and burning increase resistance to a bark beetle outbreak and promote forest resilience.

  2016cited by this paper
• Biochar in European Soils and Agriculture

  2016cited by this paper
• 2016 Billion-ton report: Advancing domestic resources for a thriving bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic availability of feedstock

  2016cited by this paper
• Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

  2016cited by this paper
• Europe’s forest management did not mitigate climate warming

  2016cited by this paper
• Effects of biochar application on fluxes of three biogenic greenhouse gases: a meta‐analysis

  2016influential reference
• Evaluation of Intensive "4R" Strategies for Decreasing Nitrous Oxide Emissions and Nitrogen Surplus in Rainfed Corn.

  2016cited by this paper
• Potential of temperate agricultural soils for carbon sequestration: A meta-analysis of land-use effects.

  2016cited by this paper
• Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

  2016cited by this paper
• NACP NAFD Project: Forest Disturbance History from Landsat, 1986-2010

  2016cited by this paper
• Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

  2016cited by this paper
• Quantifying N2O emissions from intensive grassland production: the role of synthetic fertilizer type, application rate, timing and nitrification inhibitors

  2016cited by this paper
• The myth that no-till can mitigate global climate change

  2016cited by this paper
• Agriculture Afforestation for Carbon Sequestration Under Carbon Markets in the United States: Leakage Behavior from Regional Allowance Programs

  2016cited by this paper
• Adapt-N Outperforms Grower-Selected Nitrogen Rates in Northeast and Midwestern United States Strip Trials

  2016cited by this paper
• Urban tree mortality: a primer on demographic approaches

  2016cited by this paper
• Subfield profitability analysis reveals an economic case for cropland diversification

  2016cited by this paper
• Supervised logging and climber cutting improves stand development: 18 years of post-logging data in a tropical rain forest in Borneo

  2016cited by this paper
• Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

  2016cited by this paper
• Optimizing High-Residue Cultivation Timing and Frequency in Reduced-Tillage Soybean and Corn

  2016cited by this paper
• Moving Beyond Global Warming Potentials to Quantify the Climatic Role of Ecosystems

  2015cited by this paper
• Organic carbon dynamics in soils with pyrogenic organic matter that received plant residue additions over seven years

  2015cited by this paper
• Marginal costs of abating greenhouse gases in the global ruminant livestock sector

  2015cited by this paper
• RPA Data Wiz Users Guide, Version 1.0

  2015cited by this paper
• Cradle-to-farm gate environmental footprints of beef cattle production in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

  2015cited by this paper
• The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale

  2015cited by this paper
• Crown size and growing space requirement of common tree species in urban centres, parks, and forests

  2015cited by this paper
• Where Tree Planting and Forest Expansion are Bad for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

  2015cited by this paper
• Effects of thinning-induced changes in structural heterogeneity on growth, ingrowth, and mortality in secondary coastal Douglas-fir forests

  2015cited by this paper
• Review: Redesigning Canadian prairie cropping systems for profitability, sustainability, and resilience

  2015cited by this paper
• Targeting Investments to Cost Effectively Restore and Protect Wetland Ecosystems: Some Economic Insights

  2015cited by this paper
• Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States

  2015cited by this paper
• Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the Conterminous United States – Representing a Decade of Land Cover Change Information

  2015cited by this paper
• Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils via cultivation of cover crops – A meta-analysis

  2015cited by this paper
• Impact of alley cropping agroforestry on stocks, forms and spatial distribution of soil organic carbon — A case study in a Mediterranean context

  2015cited by this paper
• Changes in soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in croplands converted to walnut-based agroforestry systems and orchards in southeastern Loess Plateau of China

  2015cited by this paper
• Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the world’s grazing lands: Modeling soil carbon and nitrogen fluxes of mitigation practices

  2015cited by this paper
• Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations

  2015cited by this paper
• Review: Redesigning Canadian prairie cropping systems for profitability, sustainability, and resilience

  2015cited by this paper
• Dual controls on carbon loss during drought in peatlands

  2015cited by this paper
• The cost and feasibility of marine coastal restoration.

  2015cited by this paper
• Cost-effective targeting of conservation investments to reduce the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone

  2014cited by this paper
• Social-Ecological Systems in Transition

  2014cited by this paper
• Agriculture: sustainable crop and animal production to help mitigate nitrous oxide emissions

  2014cited by this paper
• Comparison of Methane Emission from Conventional and Modified Paddy Cultivation in Malaysia

  2014cited by this paper
• Carbon emissions performance of commercial logging in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

  2014cited by this paper
• Managing Agricultural Greenhouse Gases: Coordinated Agricultural Research through GRACEnet to Address Our Changing Climate.

  2014cited by this paper
• Soil Carbon Dynamics in Residential Lawns Converted from Appalachian Mixed Oak Stands

  2014cited by this paper
• Pattern and Process

  2014cited by this paper
• THE VALUE OF VERSATILE ALLEY CROPPING IN THE SOUTHEAST US: A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

  2014cited by this paper
• Forest Resources of the United States, 2012: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 update of the RPA Assessment

  2014cited by this paper
• Co‐benefits, trade‐offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

  2014cited by this paper
• Reducing nitrous oxide emissions from the global food system

  2014cited by this paper
• Effects of feedstock type, production method, and pyrolysis temperature on biochar and hydrochar properties

  2014cited by this paper
• Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

  2014cited by this paper
• A database and synthesis of northern peatland soil properties and Holocene carbon and nitrogen accumulation

  2014cited by this paper
• Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation

  2014cited by this paper
• Economics of Cover Crop and Supplemental Fertilizer in Strip Tillage Cotton

  2014cited by this paper
• Arid old-field restoration: Native perennial grasses suppress weeds and erosion, but also suppress native shrubs

  2014cited by this paper
• Reforestation as a novel abatement and compliance measure for ground-level ozone

  2014cited by this paper

• Challenges and opportunities to tree planting on working landscapes: Insights from New York dairy farmers

  2026cites this paper
• Projected impact of combined high-end atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and tree restoration on albedo, forest emissions and carbon uptake

  2026cites this paper
• Integrated Estimates of Forest Expansion Opportunity in New York State

  2026influential citation
• Novel carbon dynamics assessment framework reveals climate positive land management approaches across North America

  2026cites this paper
• Calibrating a regional growth and yield model for statewide forest carbon assessment in four common forest types in Minnesota, USA

  2026cites this paper
• Incentivizing climate-smart forestry: Analyzing forest landowners' willingness to accept incentives for extended forest rotation

  2026cites this paper
• Variable impacts of forest treatments on carbon and mortality following disturbance

  2026cites this paper
• Soil carbon debt from land use change in Brazil

  2026influential citation
• A Climate–Geomechanics Interface for Adaptive and Resilient Geostructures

  2026cites this paper
• Leveraging sUAS-Sentinel-2 synergy for cross-scale mapping of canopy cover and aboveground biomass across Mongolia and Kazakhstan

  2026cites this paper
• Grassland 2.0—agroecosystems that care for us today while building capacity for future generations to do the same

  2026cites this paper
• Dynamic Ex-Post Baselines for Enhancing the Credibility of Improved Forest Management Carbon Offsets.

  2026cites this paper
• Qualitatively assessing trade‐offs and co‐benefits at local scales when considering carbon outcomes among other management goals

  2026cites this paper
• Carbon sink potential and contributions to dual carbon goals of the grain for green program in the arid regions of Northwest China

  2025cites this paper
• Afforestation/Reforestation and Avoided Conversion Carbon Projects in the United States

  2025cites this paper
• Land conversion to energy crops for sustainable aviation fuel production reduces greenhouse gas emissions in the United States

  2025cites this paper
• Machine learning for predicting urban greenhouse gas emissions: A systematic literature review

  2025cites this paper
• Opportunities and challenges to community-level adoption of natural climate solutions in Washington State

  2025cites this paper
• Climate change mitigation through woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) habitat restoration in British Columbia

  2025cites this paper
• Influence of vegetation restoration strategies on seasonal soil water deficit in a subtropical hilly catchment of southwest China

  2025cites this paper
• Using OCO-2 Observations to Constrain Regional CO2 Fluxes Estimated with the Vegetation, Photosynthesis and Respiration Model

  2025cites this paper
• Forest Community Structure and Aboveground Net Primary Productivity across an Elevation Gradient in the Congaree River floodplain, South Carolina, USA

  2025cites this paper
• Forest Carbon Modeling Improved Through Hierarchical Assimilation of Pool‐Based Measurements

  2025cites this paper
• Ten Years of Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change: An Applied, Coproduced Experimental Framework

  2025cites this paper
• Cover Crops as Nature‐Based Climate Solutions in the Midwestern US: Potential Benefits, Knowledge Gaps, and Opportunities for Transdisciplinary Work

  2025cites this paper
• White-Tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) Exclusion Shifts Soil Carbon Dynamics in Mature Oak-Dominated and Hemlock-Dominated Forest Stands

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating albedo offsets in reforestation decisions for climate change mitigation outcomes in 2050: A case study in the USA

  2025cites this paper
• Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Ecosystem-Scale CO2 Flux Measurements

  2025cites this paper
• Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

  2025cites this paper
• Accelerating contributions of restoration ecology for enhancing natural climate solutions

  2025cites this paper
• Examining climate benefits from rangeland and pasture management practices in the United States: opportunities, tradeoffs, and information gaps

  2025cites this paper
• Long-term impact of different prevalent cropping systems on soil physico-chemical characteristics under subtropical climate conditions of Punjab, Pakistan

  2025cites this paper
• Decadal trends in global grassland growth peaks and their drivers since the 1980s

  2025cites this paper
• Biochar at the Core of Nature‐Based Carbon Management: A Comparative Review Bridging Environmental Sustainability and Economic Feasibility

  2025cites this paper
• A nature-based conservation framework that aligns opportunities for bird biodiversity, climate mitigation, and human equity

  2025cites this paper
• Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

  2025cites this paper
• Legacies of a “great simple country” forest transitions, urban greening, and the fallacy of trees as a tool of democratisation

  2025cites this paper
• Assessing Soil Carbon Sequestration Through Cover Crops: The Role of Implicit Costs in Alabama Cotton Fields

  2025cites this paper
• The western North American forestland carbon sink: will our climate commitments go up in smoke?

  2025cites this paper
• Carbon stock dynamics along a cork oak stand chronosequence: implications for climate-smart forest management

  2025cites this paper
• 权衡碳固存和耗水量的全球生态恢复框架

  2025cites this paper
• Global ecological restoration framework trading off carbon sequestration and water consumption

  2025cites this paper
• The appeal of climate program framing depends on climate beliefs: a conjoint survey experiment among US agricultural producers

  2025cites this paper
• Global Potential to Increase Soil Carbon Storage by Reducing Rotational Fallow in Semiarid Regions

  2025influential citation
• Prairie management practices influence biodiversity, productivity and surface–atmosphere feedbacks

  2025cites this paper
• Science-based communication and education needed to improve forest carbon science, policy, and management outcomes

  2025cites this paper
• Local-scale tree cover modulates pollination services and crop yield in tropical agroforestry landscapes, Rwanda

  2025cites this paper
• Atmospheric chemistry enhances the climate mitigation potential of tree restoration

  2025cites this paper
• Insights Into Nature‐Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

  2025influential citation
• Land use conversion from oil palm plantations to settlements: Environmental impacts and socio-economic determinants in Warmare District

  2025cites this paper
• Building trust and efficacy in forest carbon programs: lessons from stakeholder engagement in Central Appalachia

  2025cites this paper
• Evaluating Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) calibration options for predicting biomass accumulation across diverse Oregon landscapes

  2025cites this paper
• Global teal carbon: Stocks, sequestration, and its potential role in climate change mitigation.

  2025cites this paper
• Options for Forest Sector Participation in International Carbon Markets: Unlocking the Carbon Market Potential of Australia’s Forest Sector

  2025cites this paper
• Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

  2025cites this paper
• Financial Incentives and Landowner Interest in Reforesting Open Lands in the Southeastern United States

  2025cites this paper
• Crop rotation and the impact on soil carbon in the U.S. Corn Belt

  2025cites this paper
• Validation of GEDI above ground biomass product over Pinus sp. plantations in Argentina

  2025cites this paper
• Exacerbating risk in human-ignited large fires over western United States due to lower flammability thresholds and greenhouse gas emissions

  2025cites this paper
• Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

  2025cites this paper
• Urban green space inequality and its socio-economic, geographical, and climate determinants in 11 528 cities

  2025cites this paper
• The functional role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in enhancing soil organic carbon stocks and stability in dryland

  2025cites this paper
• New allometric models for the USA create a shift in forest carbon estimation, modeling, and mapping

  2025cites this paper
• A blueprint for national assessments of the blue carbon capacity of kelp forests applied to Canada’s coastline

  2025cites this paper
• Allometric equations quantify accelerated growth and carbon fixation in trees of northeastern North America

  2025cites this paper
• Long-term cover cropping and nitrogen fertilization impacts on net global warming potential of continuous no-till cotton cropping system.

  2025cites this paper
• The δ13C Signature of Dissolved Organic and Inorganic Carbon Reveals Complex Carbon Transformations Within a Salt Marsh

  2025cites this paper
• Current status of improved forest management carbon offset projects in the US voluntary market

  2025cites this paper
• Interplay between voluntary private carbon initiatives and USDA programs

  2025cites this paper
• The influence of seagrass traits and environmental controls on soil organic carbon stocks in Chrouy Pros Bay, Cambodia.

  2025cites this paper
• Biophysical and Social Constraints of Restoring Ecosystem Services in the Border Regions of Tibet, China

  2025cites this paper
• Different topographic and climatic contexts associated carbon hotspots in a carbon‐dense ecoregion

  2025cites this paper
• Is decoupling enough to achieve the U.S. climate targets for agriculture and forestry? Historical greenhouse gas and biomass fluxes from AFOLU sector production in the United States, 1910–2022

  2025cites this paper
• Mitigating the risk of natural climate solutions failure through diversified portfolios

  2025cites this paper
• Mapping peatland extent and condition in the conterminous United States and Hawaii to inform peatland protection and restoration.

  2025cites this paper
• Multi-scale assessment of wildfire use on carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, CA

  2025cites this paper
• Management alternatives for climate‐smart agriculture at two long‐term agricultural research sites in the United States: A model ensemble case study

  2025cites this paper
• Operationalizing Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Sustainability in Hyper-Arid Regions: The Case of the Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia

  2025cites this paper
• The potential for albedo-induced climate mitigation using no-till management in midwestern U.S. croplands

  2025cites this paper
• Global Warming, a More Catastrophic Climate Change Reality of the 21st Century Than Ever Before: Underlying Factors, Impact and Youth Led Mitigation

  2025cites this paper
• Aligning natural climate solutions with mitigation policies for low-cost carbon neutrality: insights from the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

  2025influential citation
• Carbon costs of different pathways for reducing fire hazard in the Sierra Nevada

  2025cites this paper
• Opposite effect on soil organic carbon between grain and non-grain crops: Evidence from Main Grain Land, China

  2025cites this paper
• Balancing Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Through Forest Management Choices—A Case Study from Hungary

  2025cites this paper
• Three Decades of Wetland Methane Surface Flux Modeling by Earth System Models‐Advances, Applications, and Challenges

  2024cites this paper
• Expert review of the science underlying nature-based climate solutions

  2024cites this paper
• Site properties, environmental factors, and crop identify influence soil bacterial communities more than municipal biosolid application.

  2024cites this paper
• Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration

  2024cites this paper
• Global Forest Plantations Mapping and Biomass Carbon Estimation

  2024cites this paper
• A comparative analysis of the microbial communities and functional genes of the nitrogen cycling in mangroves of China, Indian and Malaysia

  2024cites this paper
• Regional Inversion Shows Promise in Capturing Extreme‐Event‐Driven CO2 Flux Anomalies but Is Limited by Atmospheric CO2 Observational Coverage

  2024cites this paper
• The inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil’s REDD+ program

  2024cites this paper
• Current inequality and future potential of US urban tree cover for reducing heat-related health impacts

  2024influential citation
• Modeling wood product carbon flows in southern us pine plantations: implications for carbon storage

  2024cites this paper
• The spatiotemporal domains of natural climate solutions research and strategies for implementation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

  2024cites this paper
• Quantitative methods for integrating climate adaptation strategies into spatial decision support models

  2024cites this paper
• Tradeoffs and synergies of optimized management for maximizing carbon sequestration across complex landscapes and diverse ecosystem services

  2024cites this paper
• Towards A More Inclusive G7 Climate Club

  2024cites this paper
• Cropland abandonment between 1986 and 2018 across the United States: spatiotemporal patterns and current land uses

  2024cites this paper
• Analysis of forestry management based on dynamic life cycle assessment of biogenic carbon: A case study of a forestry resource-based city in Northeast China

  2024cites this paper