Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2007

• Venue

  Weather and Forecasting

• Publication date

  2007-04-01

• Fields of study

  Computer Science, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1175/WAF966.1
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation

  2007cited by this paper
• Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

  2005cited by this paper
• Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable

  2005cited by this paper
• Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory

  2002influential reference
• Measuring Dynamical Prediction Utility Using Relative Entropy

  2002cited by this paper
• Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate

  2000cited by this paper
• A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System

  1999cited by this paper
• Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule

  1998cited by this paper
• On Information and Sufficiency

  1997cited by this paper
• Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction

  1995cited by this paper
• A General Framework for Forecast Verification

  1987cited by this paper
• Expected Information as Expected Utility

  1979cited by this paper
• Sverre Petterssen: Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Vol. I, Motion and Motion Systems. 2 udg. 1956. McGraw-Hill Book Company 1956. $ 8.50.

  1957cited by this paper
• Weather Analysis and Forecasting

  1942cited by this paper

• Bayesian probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting and stochastic model-predictive control for an agricultural microgrid

  2026cites this paper
• Skilful subseasonal forecasts of dry spells: a case study for Malawi

  2025cites this paper
• Increasing NWP Thunderstorm Predictability Using Ensemble Data and Machine Learning

  2025cites this paper
• A generalisation of the signal-to-noise ratio using proper scoring rules

  2025cites this paper
• Bayes Is Back

  2025cites this paper
• Forecasting time series by long-memory models for count data with an application to price jumps

  2025cites this paper
• Proper scoring rules for multivariate probabilistic forecasts based on aggregation and transformation

  2024cites this paper
• Language Generation with Strictly Proper Scoring Rules

  2024cites this paper
• Machine Learning for Soccer Match Result Prediction

  2024cites this paper
• The Generalized Long-Term Fault Memory Model and Applications to Paleoseismic Records

  2024cites this paper
• Inferring the tree regeneration niche from inventory data using a dynamic forest model

  2024cites this paper
• Multi-Objective Estimation of Optimal Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Forecasting

  2024cites this paper
• Kairosis: A method for dynamical probability forecast aggregation informed by Bayesian change-point detection

  2024cites this paper
• Онлайн агрегирование систем конформного прогнозирования

  2023cites this paper
• Scenario generation of residential electricity consumption through sampling of historical data

  2023cites this paper
• A machine‐learning approach to thunderstorm forecasting through post‐processing of simulation data

  2023cites this paper
• On the Combination of Physical Parameterization Schemes for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts in the Context of Uncertainty

  2023cites this paper
• Supplement of Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change

  2023cites this paper
• Forecasting influenza hospital admissions within English sub-regions using hierarchical generalised additive models

  2023cites this paper
• Efficient training sets for surrogate models of tokamak turbulence with Active Deep Ensembles

  2023cites this paper
• Inferring Ocean Transport Statistics With Probabilistic Neural Networks

  2023cites this paper
• Fair Skill Brier Score: Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of One-Off Events with Different Numbers of Categorical Outcomes

  2023cites this paper
• A General Model for Side Information in Neural Networks

  2023cites this paper
• Rescaling of Historic Electricity Demand Series for Forward-Looking Risk Calculations

  2022cites this paper
• Deep conditional transformation models for survival analysis

  2022cites this paper
• A zero‐inflated endemic–epidemic model with an application to measles time series in Germany

  2022cites this paper
• Deep transformation models for functional outcome prediction after acute ischemic stroke

  2022cites this paper
• Online Aggregation of Probabilistic Predictions of Hourly Electrical Loads

  2022cites this paper
• Uncovering the Large‐Scale Meteorology That Drives Continental, Shallow, Green Cumulus Through Supervised Classification

  2022cites this paper
• Bayesian comparison of stochastic models of dispersion

  2022cites this paper
• Probabilistic Short-Term Low-Voltage Load Forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows

  2022cites this paper
• Deep interpretable ensembles

  2022cites this paper
• A Probabilistic Model for Predicting Shot Success in Football

  2021cites this paper
• Online aggregation of probability forecasts with confidence

  2021cites this paper
• Improving the potential accuracy and usability of EURO-CORDEX estimates of future rainfall climate using frequentist model averaging

  2021cites this paper
• Comparison of Two Solar Probabilistic Forecasting Methodologies for Microgrids Energy Efficiency

  2021cites this paper
• Flood Risk and Monitoring Data for Preparedness and Response

  2021cites this paper
• Improving Real-Time Position Estimation Using Correlated Noise Models †

  2020cites this paper
• Beyond Strictly Proper Scoring Rules: The Importance of Being Local

  2020influential citation
• Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods

  2020cites this paper
• A Review and Comparative Study on Probabilistic Object Detection in Autonomous Driving

  2020cites this paper
• Ordinal Neural Network Transformation Models: Deep and interpretable regression models for ordinal outcomes

  2020cites this paper
• A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment

  2020cites this paper
• Online Aggregation of Probabilistic Forecasts Based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score

  2020cites this paper
• Scenario Forecasting for Global Tourism

  2020cites this paper
• Assessing the Significance of Model Selection in Ecology

  2020cites this paper
• Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium

  2020cites this paper
• Score decompositions in forecast verification

  2020influential citation
• Designing Multimodel Applications with Surrogate Forecast Systems

  2020cites this paper
• Estimation of Accurate and Calibrated Uncertainties in Deterministic models

  2020cites this paper
• Learning algorithms allow for improved reliability and accuracy of global mean surface temperature projections

  2020cites this paper
• Online Learning with Continuous Ranked Probability Score

  2019cites this paper
• Verification of solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts

  2019cites this paper
• Quantile Regression and Clustering Models of Prediction Intervals for Weather Forecasts: A Comparative Study

  2019cites this paper
• Scotland ' s Rural College Probabilistic forecasts : scoring rules and their decomposition and diagrammatic representation via

  2019cites this paper
• An Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Score Approach to Compare Observation Scenarios: An Application to Biogeochemical-Argo Deployments

  2019cites this paper
• Learning with Continuous Ranked Probability Score

  2019cites this paper
• Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches: the case against the ranked probability score

  2019influential citation
• Combining multiple forecasts for multivariate time series via state-dependent weighting.

  2019cites this paper
• Real-time predictions of the 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models

  2019cites this paper
• Cross-calibration of categorical variables: An evaluation of the genetic algorithm approach

  2019cites this paper
• Validation in Weather Forecasting

  2019cites this paper
• Forecast Verification

  2019cites this paper
• Spatio-Temporal Statistics with R

  2019influential citation
• Comment on “On the Relationship Between Probabilistic and Deterministic Skills in Dynamical Seasonal Climate Prediction”

  2019cites this paper
• Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018

  2019cites this paper
• Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Forecasting

  2018cites this paper
• Heavy rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015-2016 austral summer: causes and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictive skill

  2018cites this paper
• On the Generation of Probabilistic Forecasts From Deterministic Models

  2018cites this paper
• Comparison of nonhomogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

  2018cites this paper
• Accuracy-Reliability Cost Function for Empirical Variance Estimation

  2018cites this paper
• Vineyards ́ Integrated Smart Climate Application

  2018cites this paper
• Verification in the presence of observation errors: Bayesian point of view

  2018cites this paper
• A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies

  2018cites this paper
• Benefits of spatiotemporal modeling for short‐term wind power forecasting at both individual and aggregated levels

  2018cites this paper
• Forecast score distributions with imperfect observations

  2018cites this paper
• Scoping the potential usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts for solar power management

  2018cites this paper
• Deposited in DRO : 21 August 2018 Version of attached

  2018cites this paper
• Quantifying the predictability of a predictand: Demonstrating the diverse roles of serial dependence in the estimation of forecast skill

  2018cites this paper
• Ensemble forecast of photovoltaic power with online CRPS learning

  2018cites this paper
• Combined time-varying forecast based on the proper scoring approach for wind power generation

  2017cites this paper
• Probabilistic forecasts of trachoma transmission at the district level: A statistical model comparison

  2017cites this paper
• Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey

  2017cites this paper
• orecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of razil : A comparison of modelling approaches avid

  2017cites this paper
• Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches

  2017cites this paper
• Probability Forecasts Made at Multiple Lead Times

  2017influential citation
• Measuring forecast performance in the presence of observation error

  2017cites this paper
• Accounting for spatial correlation in the empirical scoring of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates

  2017cites this paper
• Seasonal Climate Prediction: A New Source of Information for the Management of Wind Energy Resources

  2017cites this paper
• Empirical Evaluation of Hierarchical Ground‐Motion Models: Score Uncertainty and Model Weighting

  2017cites this paper
• Online learning with the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for ensemble forecasting

  2017cites this paper
• Forest-Based and Semiparametric Methods for the Postprocessing of Rainfall Ensemble Forecasting

  2017cites this paper
• Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

  2017cites this paper
• Predictability and the decay of information in mathematical and physical systems

  2017cites this paper
• Approche physico-statistique de la désagrégation des précipitations satellite dans les Tropiques

  2016cites this paper
• Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

  2016cites this paper
• On the Design and use of Ensembles of Multi-model Simulations for Forecasting

  2016cites this paper
• Verification of Medium- to Long-Range Hydrological Forecasts

  2016cites this paper
• Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP ) in selecting rainfall forecasting models

  2016cites this paper
• New advanced method and cost-based indices applied to probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic generation

  2016cites this paper