Abstract. In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050–2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.
Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan
D. Bocchiola,G. Diolaiuti,A. Soncini,C. Mihalcea,C. D'agata,C. Mayer,A. Lambrecht,R. Rosso,C. Smiraglia
Published 2011 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ABSTRACT
PUBLICATION RECORD
- Publication year
2011
- Venue
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
- Publication date
2011-07-04
- Fields of study
Geology, Geography, Environmental Science
- Identifiers
- External record
- Source metadata
Semantic Scholar
CITATION MAP
EXTRACTION MAP
CLAIMS
CONCEPTS
- ccsm3 model
The IPCC climate model output used here to provide future temperature and precipitation fields.
Aliases: Community Climate System Model 3, CCSM3
- climate change
Long-term warming and related shifts in climate conditions used as the forcing context for the projections.
Aliases: changing climate
- flow descriptors
Selected numerical summaries used to describe key properties of the simulated discharge regime.
Aliases: discharge descriptors, streamflow descriptors
- flow duration curves
Curves summarizing the distribution of streamflow exceedance across the modeled period.
Aliases: FDCs
- future hydrological regimes
The projected patterns of streamflow behavior in the basin under future climate conditions.
Aliases: projected hydrological regime, future flow regime
- glacier cover scenarios
Alternative assumptions about glacier extent used to test sensitivity to shrinking glacierized area.
Aliases: glacier cover cases, glacier extent scenarios
- glacierized areas
The portions of the basin covered by glacier ice that are varied in the scenario analysis.
Aliases: glacier cover, glacier extent
- hydrological modeling framework
The modeling setup combining limited observations with climate inputs to simulate basin hydrology.
Aliases: modeling approach, framework
- in situ measured ice ablation data
Field measurements of glacier ice melt used as calibration input for the model.
Aliases: ice ablation data, field ice ablation data
- locally adjusted precipitation and temperature fields
Future precipitation and temperature inputs downscaled or adjusted for the study basin before being supplied to the hydrological model.
Aliases: adjusted precipitation and temperature fields, future climate forcing
- minimal hydrological model
A compact hydrological model configured with a limited set of inputs for the Shigar basin application.
Aliases: simple hydrological model
- observed ground climatic data
Measured climate records from nearby stations used to tune the hydrological model.
Aliases: observed climatic data, ground climatic data
- poorly gauged high altitude basins
Mountain catchments with sparse hydrometric observations, such as the Shigar watershed studied here.
Aliases: poorly gauged catchments, high altitude catchments
- reference decade 2050-2059
The ten-year future period used as the climate input window for the projections.
Aliases: 2050-2059, future reference decade
- remotely sensed snow cover data
Satellite-derived snow cover observations used to support model calibration.
Aliases: remote sensing snow cover data, snow cover observations
REFERENCES
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