The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

• Publication year

  2010

• Venue

  PLOS Currents

• Publication date

  2010-06-13

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1371/CURRENTS.RRN1130PMID 20029668PMCID 2780827
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus

  2009cited by this paper
• Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

  2009cited by this paper
• Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings

  2009cited by this paper
• Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America

  2009cited by this paper
• An outbreak of influenza A(H1N1)v in a boarding school in South East England, May-June 2009.

  2009cited by this paper
• Outbreak of influenza A(H1N1)v without travel history in a school in the Toulouse district, France, June 2009.

  2009cited by this paper
• Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States.

  2009cited by this paper
• Evaluation of four real-time PCR assays for detection of influenza A(H1N1)v viruses.

  2009cited by this paper
• Assessment of secondary attack rate and effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis among household contacts in an influenza A(H1N1)v outbreak in Kobe, Japan, May-June 2009.

  2009cited by this paper
• Epidemiology of new influenza A(H1N1) in the United Kingdom, April-May 2009.

  2009cited by this paper
• Epidemiology of new influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, United Kingdom, April-June 2009.

  2009cited by this paper
• Preliminary descriptive epidemiology of a large school outbreak of influenza A(H1N1)v in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, May 2009.

  2009cited by this paper
• The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom.

  2009cited by this paper
• Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic

  2009cited by this paper
• Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

  2008cited by this paper
• How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers

  2007cited by this paper
• Transmissibility of swine flu at Fort Dix, 1976

  2007cited by this paper
• Establishment of a UK National Influenza H5 Laboratory Network.

  2007cited by this paper
• Antiviral effects on influenza viral transmission and pathogenicity: observations from household-based trials.

  2006cited by this paper
• Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States.

  2006cited by this paper
• Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases.

  2006cited by this paper
• Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

  2006cited by this paper
• Management of influenza in households: a prospective, randomized comparison of oseltamivir treatment with or without postexposure prophylaxis.

  2004cited by this paper
• Estimation of effective reproduction numbers for infectious diseases using serological survey data.

  2003cited by this paper
• Effectiveness of oseltamivir in preventing influenza in household contacts: a randomized controlled trial.

  2001cited by this paper
• OSELTAMIVIR POST EXPOSURE PROPHYLAXIS INVESTIGATOR GROUP. EFFECTIVENESS OF OSELTAMIVIR IN PREVENTING INFLUENZA IN HOUSEHOLD CONTACTS: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL

  2001cited by this paper

• Risk period for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza: a rapid review

  2025cites this paper
• Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel controls to identify MPXV-infected travelers: a simulation study

  2025influential citation
• Use of Influenza Antivirals to Prevent Transmission.

  2025cites this paper
• Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce influenza transmission in households: a systematic review and meta-analysis

  2024cites this paper
• Anti-Neuraminidase Antibodies Reduce the Susceptibility to and Infectivity of Influenza A/H3N2 Virus

  2024cites this paper
• Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza in preK-12 schools shows school, community, and citywide infections

  2023cites this paper
• Estimating the basic reproduction number at the beginning of an outbreak

  2022cites this paper
• Plasma lipopolysaccharide levels predict mortality in acutely ill children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

  2022cites this paper
• Inference of malaria reproduction numbers in three elimination settings by combining temporal data and distance metrics

  2021cites this paper
• Overrepresentation of South Asian ethnic groups among cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during the first phase of the 2009 pandemic in England

  2020cites this paper
• A novel framework for evaluating the impact of individual decision-making on public health outcomes and its potential application to study antiviral treatment collection during an influenza pandemic

  2019cites this paper
• Antiviral treatment for outpatient use during an influenza pandemic: a decision tree model of outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness

  2018cites this paper
• Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting

  2018cites this paper
• The interplay between individual social behavior and clinical symptoms in small clustered groups

  2017cites this paper
• Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies.

  2017cites this paper
• Dynamic Transmission Factors of A/H1N1 (2009) in Niamey, Niger

  2017cites this paper
• Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases

  2017cites this paper
• From data to mathematical analysis and simulation in models in epidemiology and ecology

  2016influential citation
• Choice of Antiviral Allocation Scheme for Pandemic Influenza Depends on Strain Transmissibility, Delivery Delay and Stockpile Size

  2016cites this paper
• Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data

  2016cites this paper
• Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy

  2016cites this paper
• One-Health Simulation Modelling: A Case Study of Influenza Spread between Human and Swine Populations using NAADSM.

  2016cites this paper
• Resurgence of pandemic A/H1N1 2009 viruses during influenza season 2013-2014.

  2015influential citation
• Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households

  2015cites this paper
• Household Transmission of Influenza Virus

  2015cites this paper
• A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak

  2015cites this paper
• Approximations of stochastic household models for comparing antiviral allocation schemes.

  2015influential citation
• Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies.

  2015cites this paper
• Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection

  2015influential citation
• School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences

  2014cites this paper
• The relative importance of frequency of contacts and duration of exposure for the spread of directly transmitted infections.

  2014cites this paper
• Statistical Inference for Propagation Processes on Complex Networks

  2014cites this paper
• Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

  2014cites this paper
• Determinants of Influenza Transmission in South East Asia: Insights from a Household Cohort Study in Vietnam

  2014cites this paper
• MONITORING AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EMERGENT INFLUENZA A H1N1 2009 VIRUSES IN RABAT, MOROCCO DURING 2009-2010

  2014cites this paper
• Serial intervals of respiratory infectious diseases: a systematic review and analysis.

  2014cites this paper
• Systematic Reviews and Meta- and Pooled Analyses Serial Intervals of Respiratory Infectious Diseases: A Systematic Review and Analysis

  2014cites this paper
• Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies

  2014cites this paper
• Antiviral stockpiles for influenza pandemics from the household perspective: treatment alone versus treatment with prophylaxis.

  2013cites this paper
• Measuring the effect of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09: the epidemiological experience in the West Midlands, England during the ‘containment’ phase

  2013cites this paper
• A model for the emergence of drug resistance in the presence of asymptomatic infections

  2013influential citation
• Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England

  2013cites this paper
• Impact of Preventive Responses to Epidemics in Rural Regions

  2013cites this paper
• Co-circulation of influenza A virus strains and emergence of pandemic via reassortment: the role of cross-immunity.

  2013cites this paper
• Analysis of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 outcomes in 19 European countries: association with completeness of national strategic plans

  2013cites this paper
• Estimating the Generation Interval of Influenza A (H1N1) in a Range of Social Settings

  2013cites this paper
• Simulation modeling of zoonotic diseases between swine and human populations for informing policy decisions

  2013cites this paper
• International flight-related transmission of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09: an historical cohort study of the first identified cases in the United Kingdom

  2013cites this paper
• Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza

  2013influential citation
• Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: Age, Risk and Population Susceptibility

  2013cites this paper
• Effects of School Closure on Incidence of Pandemic Influenza in Alberta, Canada

  2012cites this paper
• Patterns of early transmission of pandemic influenza in London – link with deprivation

  2012cites this paper
• Preventing Pandemics Via International Development: A Systems Approach

  2012cites this paper
• Attack Rates Assessment of the 2009 Pandemic H 1 N 1 Influenza A in Children and Their Contacts : A Systematic Review

  2012cites this paper
• Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China

  2012cites this paper
• Transmission of a 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus Occurs before Fever Is Detected, in the Ferret Model

  2012cites this paper
• Attack Rates Assessment of the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A in Children and Their Contacts: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

  2012cites this paper
• The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile

  2012cites this paper
• Pandemic Influenza H1N1: Reconciling Serosurvey Data With Estimates of the Reproduction Number

  2012cites this paper
• Effect of Vaccines and Antivirals during the Major 2009 A(H1N1) Pandemic Wave in Norway – And the Influence of Vaccination Timing

  2012cites this paper
• Secondary Household Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus among an Urban and Rural Population in Kenya, 2009–2010

  2012cites this paper
• A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic.

  2012cites this paper
• Household Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1): A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

  2012cites this paper
• Impact of weekday social contact patterns on the modeling of influenza transmission, and determination of the influenza latent period.

  2012cites this paper
• Why is every country not primed to use oral rehydration therapy to treat cases of diarrhoea?

  2012cites this paper
• Title Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A ( H 1 N 1 ) : asystematic review and meta-analysis

  2012cites this paper
• Estimating influenza latency and infectious period durations using viral excretion data.

  2012cites this paper
• Prevalence and predictors of self-medication in a selected urban and rural district of Sri Lanka

  2012cites this paper
• Risk perception and effectiveness of uncoordinated behavioral responses in an emerging epidemic.

  2012cites this paper
• new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from entinel surveillance : Application to the Italian 2009 – 2010 A / H 1 N 1 influenza andemic

  2012influential citation
• Characterizing the Epidemiology of the 2009 Influenza A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico

  2011cites this paper
• Early spread of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in the United Kingdom--use of local syndromic data, May-August 2009.

  2011cites this paper
• Virological analysis of fatal influenza cases in the United Kingdom during the early wave of influenza in winter 2010/11.

  2011cites this paper
• Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review

  2011cites this paper
• [Transmissibility and severity of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in Spain].

  2011cites this paper
• Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling

  2011cites this paper
• Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru

  2011cites this paper
• Burden of illness of the 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) in Denmark.

  2011cites this paper
• Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza.

  2011cites this paper
• Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza A: Balancing Conflicting Policy Objectives

  2011cites this paper
• The Effect of Risk Perception on the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Dynamics

  2011cites this paper
• Estimation of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) among imported cases: addressing censoring using outbreak data at the origin of importation.

  2011influential citation
• Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza

  2011cites this paper
• Pandemic Influenza Due to pH1N1/2009 Virus: Estimation of Infection Burden in Reunion Island through a Prospective Serosurvey, Austral Winter 2009

  2011cites this paper
• Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the 1918-19 pandemic influenza in Florence, Italy.

  2011cites this paper
• Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic: a comparative analysis of 12 European countries.

  2011cites this paper
• Optimizing Tactics for Use of the U.S. Antiviral Strategic National Stockpile for Pandemic Influenza

  2011cites this paper
• Serial intervals and the temporal distribution of secondary infections within households of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1): implications for influenza control recommendations.

  2011cites this paper
• Emergence of 2009A/H1N1 cases in a tertiary care hospital in New Delhi, India

  2011cites this paper
• Epidemiology of the 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1)

  2011cites this paper
• Communicability of H1N1 and seasonal influenza among household contacts of cases in large families

  2011cites this paper
• Nuevo método para elaborar corredores endémicos

  2011cites this paper
• Methods to infer transmission risk factors in complex outbreak data

  2011cites this paper
• Use of antiviral drugs to reduce household transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, United Kingdom.

  2011cites this paper
• Joint estimation of the basic reproduction number and generation time parameters for infectious disease outbreaks.

  2011cites this paper
• Intrahousehold Transmission of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus, Victoria, Australia

  2011cites this paper
• Transmisibilidad y gravedad de la pandemia de gripe A (H1N1) 2009 en España

  2011cites this paper
• Pandemic ( H 1 N 1 ) 2009 influenza in the UK : clinical and epidemiological findings from the first few hundred ( FF 100 ) cases

  2010cites this paper
• Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy

  2010cites this paper
• Seroepidemiology of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Pune, India

  2010cites this paper