Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2011

• Venue

  Climate Dynamics

• Publication date

  2011-05-01

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1007/S00382-010-0808-0
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Advancing our understanding

  2012cited by this paper
• Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models

  2010cited by this paper
• The impact of perturbations to ocean-model parameters on climate and climate change in a coupled model

  2010cited by this paper
• Structural similarities and differences in climate responses to CO2 increase between two perturbed physics ensembles.

  2010influential reference
• Climate change 2007: the physical science basis

  2010cited by this paper
• Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble

  2010cited by this paper
• The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble

  2009cited by this paper
• Probabilistic forecast for twenty-first-century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters.

  2009influential reference
• Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions

  2009cited by this paper
• Changes in the Global Sulfate Burden due to Perturbations in Global CO2 Concentrations

  2009cited by this paper
• Analyzing the Climate Sensitivity of the HadSM3 Climate Model Using Ensembles from Different but Related Experiments

  2009influential reference
• An example of the dependence of the transient climate response on the temperature of the modelled climate state

  2008influential reference
• Tropospheric Adjustment Induces a Cloud Component in CO2 Forcing

  2008cited by this paper
• Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change

  2008cited by this paper
• Constraints on Model Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Role of Subgrid-Scale Processes

  2008cited by this paper
• How Well Do Coupled Models Simulate Today's Climate?

  2008cited by this paper
• Spatial Analysis to Quantify Numerical Model Bias and Dependence

  2008cited by this paper
• Performance metrics for climate models

  2008cited by this paper
• Error Reduction and Convergence in Climate Prediction

  2008cited by this paper
• Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations

  2008cited by this paper
• Comparison of equilibrium and transient responses to CO2 increase in eight state-of-the-art climate models

  2008cited by this paper
• Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations

  2007influential reference
• A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles

  2007influential reference
• Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. Chapter 2

  2007influential reference
• Supplementary information for "Control of land-ocean temperature contrast by ocean heat uptake"

  2007cited by this paper
• THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research

  2007influential reference
• The Physical Science Basis

  2007cited by this paper
• Global climate projections

  2007influential reference
• Estimating shortwave radiative forcing and response in climate models

  2007cited by this paper
• A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments

  2007cited by this paper
• Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change

  2007cited by this paper
• Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

  2007cited by this paper
• Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations

  2007cited by this paper
• The Sensitivity of the Rate of Transient Climate Change to Ocean Physics Perturbations

  2007influential reference
• Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints

  2007cited by this paper
• Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

  2007cited by this paper
• Probabilistic climate change predictions applying Bayesian model averaging

  2007cited by this paper
• Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change

  2006influential reference
• Constraining Climate Sensitivity from the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature

  2006influential reference
• Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernme

  2006influential reference
• On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles

  2006cited by this paper
• An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models

  2006cited by this paper
• Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate

  2006cited by this paper
• Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations

  2006influential reference
• Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850

  2006cited by this paper
• Quantifying uncertainty in changes in extreme event frequency in response to doubled CO2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations

  2006cited by this paper
• Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

  2006influential reference
• A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850-2004

  2006cited by this paper
• Predictability of Weather and Climate: Model error in weather and climate forecasting

  2006cited by this paper
• Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming

  2006cited by this paper
• Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

  2005cited by this paper
• The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting-II

  2005cited by this paper
• Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

  2005influential reference
• Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations

  2005cited by this paper
• The ERA‐40 re‐analysis

  2005cited by this paper
• The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting — I. Basic concept

  2005cited by this paper
• Constraints on climate change from a multi‐thousand member ensemble of simulations

  2005influential reference
• On the Use of Cloud Forcing to Estimate Cloud Feedback

  2004cited by this paper
• Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854–1997)

  2004cited by this paper
• A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity

  2004cited by this paper
• Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

  2004influential reference
• Climate change: Models change their tune

  2004cited by this paper
• Inverse Analysis Adjustment of the SOC Air-Sea Flux Climatology Using Ocean Heat Transport Constraints

  2003cited by this paper
• The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)

  2003cited by this paper
• AIRS/AMSU/HSB on the Aqua mission: design, science objectives, data products, and processing systems

  2003cited by this paper
• Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century

  2003cited by this paper
• Climate sensitivity and response

  2003cited by this paper
• A comparison of climate feedbacks in general circulation models

  2003cited by this paper
• Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

  2002cited by this paper
• The Role of Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake on AOGCM Transient Temperature Response

  2002cited by this paper
• Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram

  2001influential reference
• CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models

  2001cited by this paper
• Indirect sulphate aerosol forcing in a climate model with an interactive sulphur cycle

  2001cited by this paper
• The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3

  2000cited by this paper
• An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations

  2000cited by this paper
• A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output From a Computer Code

  2000cited by this paper
• The time‐dependence of climate sensitivity

  2000cited by this paper
• The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments

  2000cited by this paper
• Imperfections of the Thermohaline Circulation: Multiple Equilibria and Flux Correction*

  1999cited by this paper
• New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases

  1998influential reference
• Climate Change Projections

  1998cited by this paper
• Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs

  1997cited by this paper
• The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation

  1996cited by this paper
• Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES): An Earth Observing System Experiment

  1996cited by this paper
• Global surface air temperature in 1995: Return to pre‐Pinatubo level

  1996influential reference
• Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing carbon-dioxide

  1995cited by this paper
• Instability of the thermohaline circulation with respect to mixed boundary conditions: is it really a problem for realistic models?

  1994cited by this paper
• Four Years of Global Cirrus Cloud Statistics Using HIRS, Revised

  1994cited by this paper
• Diagnostic study of climate feedback processes in atmospheric general circulation models

  1994cited by this paper
• Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990

  1993cited by this paper
• Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

  1990cited by this paper
• Seasonal variation of cloud radiative forcing derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

  1990cited by this paper
• Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature

  1990cited by this paper

• Advanced climate modeling frameworks: state-of-the-art techniques, uncertainties, and the principle of responsibility

  2025cites this paper
• Microphysical parameter choices modulate ice content and relative humidity in the outflow of a warm conveyor belt

  2025cites this paper
• A clearer view of systematic errors in model development: two practical approaches using perturbed parameter ensembles

  2025cites this paper
• Hydro‐Climatic Modelling for Water Resources: From Processes to Adaptive Management and Governance

  2025cites this paper
• Contrasting Historical Trends in Equatorial Indian Ocean Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient in CMIP6 Models

  2025cites this paper
• Optimizing Climate Forecasts Across 16 Zones Using Regression-Based Machine Learning Models

  2025cites this paper
• A Comparison of Regional Climate Projections With a Range of Climate Sensitivities

  2024cites this paper
• Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

  2024cites this paper
• Targeted Calibration to Adjust Stability Biases in Complex Dynamical System Models

  2024cites this paper
• A Simple Emulator That Enables Interpretation of Parameter‐Output Relationships, Applied to Two Climate Model PPEs

  2024cites this paper
• Why we need lower-performance climate models

  2024cites this paper
• Describing future UK winter precipitation in terms of changes in local circulation patterns

  2024cites this paper
• Effect of Drought on the Future Sugar Content of Wine Grape Varieties till 2100: Possible Adaptation in the Hungarian Eger Wine Region

  2023cites this paper
• Effects of multi-observations uncertainty and models similarity on climate change projections

  2023influential citation
• Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model

  2023cites this paper
• On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas, exemplified by the Weddell Sea

  2023cites this paper
• Constraining Clouds and Convective Parameterizations in a Climate Model Using Paleoclimate Data

  2022cites this paper
• Evaluation of CMIP6 models toward dynamical downscaling over 14 CORDEX domains

  2022cites this paper
• A comparative analysis of pre- and post-industrial spatiotemporal drought trends and patterns of Tibet Plateau using Sen slope estimator and steady-state probabilities of Markov Chain

  2022cites this paper
• A Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in One-Dimensional Plant Canopy Flow

  2022cites this paper
• Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part I: Core Concepts and Premises

  2022cites this paper
• Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming

  2022cites this paper
• Evaluation and projections of the East Asian summer monsoon in a perturbed parameter ensemble

  2022cites this paper
• Frost Conditions Due to Climate Change in South-Eastern Europe via a High-Spatiotemporal-Resolution Dataset

  2022cites this paper
• Assessing the potential for simplification in global climate model cloud microphysics

  2021cites this paper
• Quantifying Uncertainty in the Modelling Process; Future Extreme Flood Event Projections Across the UK

  2021cites this paper
• Decision support system for integrated management of mycotoxins in feed and food supply chains

  2021cites this paper
• Uncertainty Quantification and Bayesian Inference of Cloud Parameterization in the NCAR Single Column Community Atmosphere Model (SCAM6)

  2021cites this paper
• Comparison of statistical downscaling methods for climate change impact analysis on precipitation-driven drought

  2021cites this paper
• Supplementary material to "ChAP 1.0: A stationary tropospheric sulphur cycle for Earth system models of intermediate complexity"

  2021cites this paper
• Entrainment and Its Dependency on Environmental Conditions and Convective Organization in Convection-Permitting Simulations

  2021cites this paper
• Constraining emission estimates of carbon monoxide using a perturbed emissions ensemble with observations: a focus on Beijing

  2021cites this paper
• A missing source of uncertainty: forcing-dependent model parameter sensitivity

  2021cites this paper
• Intercomparison of joint bias correction methods for precipitation and flow from a hydrological perspective

  2021cites this paper
• Mapping future water scarcity in a water abundant nation: Near-term projections for Scotland

  2021cites this paper
• Addressing partial identification in climate modeling and policy analysis

  2021cites this paper
• Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change

  2021cites this paper
• NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES ADDRESSING PARTIAL IDENTIFICATION IN CLIMATE MODELING AND POLICY ANALYSIS

  2021cites this paper
• A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model projections: part 1: selecting the parameter combinations

  2021cites this paper
• Climate change impacts on heat stress in Brazil—Past, present, and future implications for occupational heat exposure

  2020cites this paper
• Configuration and spin-up of ACCESS-CM2, the new generation Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model

  2020cites this paper
• The hemispheric contrast in cloud microphysical properties constrains aerosol forcing

  2020cites this paper
• Assessment of seasonal winter temperature forecast errors in the regcm model over northern Vietnam

  2020cites this paper
• Control of transient climate response and associated sea level rise by deep-ocean mixing

  2020cites this paper
• Assessment of Seasonal Winter Temperature Forecast Errors in the RegCM Model over Northern Vietnam

  2020cites this paper
• Long-Term Global Ground Heat Flux and Continental Heat Storage from Geothermal Data

  2020cites this paper
• UKCP Additional Land Products: Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes

  2020influential citation
• Predicting observed and hidden extreme events in complex nonlinear dynamical systems with partial observations and short training time series.

  2020cites this paper
• Tracking Changes in Climate Sensitivity in CNRM Climate Models

  2020cites this paper
• Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming

  2020cites this paper
• Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities

  2020cites this paper
• ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing

  2020cites this paper
• Interactive comment on “Comparison of statistical downscaling methods for climate change impact analysis on drought” by Hossein et al.

  2020cites this paper
• Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part 1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales

  2019cites this paper
• Downscaling climate change of mean climatology and extremes of precipitation and temperature: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin

  2019cites this paper
• Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology

  2019cites this paper
• Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change

  2019cites this paper
• Investigating the linkage between simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly based on multi-model and perturbed parameter ensembles

  2019cites this paper
• Effectiveness of CMIP5 Decadal Experiments for Interannual Rainfall Prediction Over Australia

  2019cites this paper
• Statistical Molecule Counting in Super-Resolution Fluorescence Microscopy: Towards Quantitative Nanoscopy

  2019cites this paper
• Downscaling climate change of water availability, sediment yield and extreme events: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin

  2019cites this paper
• Ensembles of Global Climate Model Variants Designed for the Quantification and Constraint of Uncertainty in Aerosols and Their Radiative Forcing

  2019cites this paper
• Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation

  2019cites this paper
• ENSO feedbacks and their relationships with the mean state in a flux adjusted ensemble

  2019influential citation
• Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B1 in maize and aflatoxin M1 in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands

  2019cites this paper
• ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing

  2019cites this paper
• Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation

  2019cites this paper
• Descente d'échelle statistique du niveau de la mer pour les îles du Pacifique Sud-Ouest : une approche de régression linéaire multiple

  2019cites this paper
• A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model projections: part 2: global performance and future changes

  2019cites this paper
• Parametric Sensitivity of Vegetation Dynamics in the TRIFFID Model and the Associated Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts on Western U.S. Forests

  2019cites this paper
• Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations

  2018cites this paper
• The Low‐Resolution Version of HadGEM3 GC3.1: Development and Evaluation for Global Climate

  2018cites this paper
• Aerosol and physical atmosphere model parameters are both important sources of uncertainty in aerosol ERF

  2018cites this paper
• A step towards efficient inference for trends in UK extreme temperatures through distributional linkage between observations and climate model data

  2018cites this paper
• Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia

  2018cites this paper
• Regional Climate Change over South Asia

  2018cites this paper
• Validity of parameter optimization in improving MJO simulation and prediction using the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast model of Beijing Climate Center

  2018cites this paper
• The epistemological status of general circulation models

  2018cites this paper
• Application of Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis Techniques to AGCM-Simulated Tropical Cyclones

  2018cites this paper
• 1 ATAT 1 . 1 , an Automated Timing Accordance Tool for 1 comparing icesheet model output with geochronological data 2

  2018cites this paper
• Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity

  2018cites this paper
• Hand in Hand Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: Investigating the Response of Tropical Cyclones to the Warming World

  2018influential citation
• Impacts of uncertain cloud-related parameters on Pacific Walker circulation simulation in GAMIL2

  2018cites this paper
• ATAT 1.1, the Automated Timing Accordance Tool for comparing ice-sheet model output with geochronological data

  2018cites this paper
• A Caveat Note on Tuning in the Development of Coupled Climate Models

  2018cites this paper
• Harmful algal blooms and climate change: exploring future distribution changes

  2018cites this paper
• Integrating Science and Policy Through Stakeholder-Engaged Scenarios

  2018cites this paper
• Improved Consistency of Climate Projections over Europe after Accounting for Atmospheric Circulation Variability

  2017cites this paper
• A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

  2017influential citation
• Projected increase in El Nino-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

  2017cites this paper
• Non-native marine species in north-west Europe: Developing an approach to assess future spread using regional downscaled climate projections

  2017cites this paper
• Evaluating the variability and trends in extreme climate events in the Kashmir Valley using PRECIS RCM simulations

  2017cites this paper
• Narrowing the range of future climate projections using historical observations of atmospheric CO2.

  2017influential citation
• What is the uncertainty in degree day projections due to different calibration methodologies

  2017cites this paper
• Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble

  2017cites this paper
• Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

  2017cites this paper
• Tailored climate indices for climate‐proofing operational forestry applications in Sweden and Finland

  2017cites this paper
• Response to Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf cavity warming in a coupled ocean–ice sheet model – Part 1: The ocean perspective

  2017cites this paper
• Quantifying the evidence of climate change in the light of uncertainty exemplified by the Mediterranean hot spot region

  2017cites this paper
• Characteristics of rainfall events in regional climate model simulations for the Czech Republic

  2017influential citation