Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity

Estimates of climate sensitivity from models and observations are reconciled by accounting for slowly responding climate mode. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from 2° to 4.5°C to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account for the lack of consensus between estimates based on models and historical observations. The historical ECS estimates range from 1.5° to 3°C and are derived assuming a linear radiative response to warming. A Bayesian methodology applied to 24 models, however, documents curvature in the radiative response to warming from an evolving contribution of interannual to centennial modes of radiative response. Centennial modes display stronger amplifying feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to 68% (90% credible interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise only 1 to 7% of current warming. Accounting for these unresolved centennial contributions brings historical records into agreement with model-derived ECS estimates.

• Publication year

  2017

• Venue

  Science Advances

• Publication date

  2017-07-01

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1126/sciadv.1602821PMID 28695203PMCID 5498107
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language.

  2017cited by this paper
• Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period

  2016cited by this paper
• Multiannual Ocean–Atmosphere Adjustments to Radiative Forcing

  2016cited by this paper
• Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

  2016cited by this paper
• Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise

  2016cited by this paper
• Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings

  2016cited by this paper
• Identification and interpretation of nonnormality in atmospheric time series

  2016cited by this paper
• Quantification of temperature response to CO2 forcing in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models

  2016cited by this paper
• Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

  2016cited by this paper
• The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth

  2016cited by this paper
• Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth/'s energy budget

  2016cited by this paper
• Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport

  2016cited by this paper
• Inference of Climate Sensitivity from Analysis of Earth's Energy Budget

  2016cited by this paper
• An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance

  2016cited by this paper
• Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO 2 concentrations

  2015cited by this paper
• The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates

  2015cited by this paper
• The Dependence of Radiative Forcing and Feedback on Evolving Patterns of Surface Temperature Change in Climate Models

  2015cited by this paper
• An Assessment of Direct Radiative Forcing, Radiative Adjustments, and Radiative Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models*

  2015cited by this paper
• Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models

  2015cited by this paper
• The impact of forcing efficacy on the equilibrium climate sensitivity

  2014cited by this paper
• Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models

  2014cited by this paper
• The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake

  2014cited by this paper
• Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

  2013cited by this paper
• Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration

  2013cited by this paper
• Energy budget constraints on climate response

  2013cited by this paper
• Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration Using CMIP5 AOGCM Experiments

  2013cited by this paper
• An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design

  2012cited by this paper
• Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

  2012cited by this paper
• Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

  2012cited by this paper
• Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate models

  2012cited by this paper
• Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks

  2012cited by this paper
• Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

  2012cited by this paper
• The No-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

  2011cited by this paper
• The magnitudes and timescales of global mean surface temperature feedbacks in climate models

  2011cited by this paper
• How sensitive is climate sensitivity?

  2011cited by this paper
• Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change

  2010cited by this paper
• Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing

  2010cited by this paper
• The Shape of Things to Come: Why Is Climate Change So Predictable?

  2009cited by this paper
• Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?

  2007cited by this paper
• The Climate Change Commitment

  2005cited by this paper
• How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?

  2005cited by this paper
• Efficacy of climate forcings

  2005cited by this paper
• A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity

  2004cited by this paper
• An Observationally Based Estimate of the Climate Sensitivity

  2002cited by this paper
• The time‐dependence of climate sensitivity

  2000cited by this paper
• Normal modes and the transient response of the climate system

  1997cited by this paper
• Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing carbon-dioxide

  1995cited by this paper
• Climate Response Times: Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing

  1985cited by this paper
• Climate Response Times : Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing

  year unknowncited by this paper

• Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming.

  2026cites this paper
• A Comprehensive Approach to Identifying the Parameters of a Counterflow Heat Exchanger Model Based on Sensitivity Analysis and Regularization Methods

  2025cites this paper
• Quantifying the radiative response to surface temperature variability: A critical comparison of current methods

  2025cites this paper
• Why is the temperature response larger for radiative forcing imposed in high latitudes than for forcing imposed in low latitudes?

  2025cites this paper
• AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations

  2025cites this paper
• METEORv1.0.1: a novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses

  2025cites this paper
• On the attribution of weather events to climate change using empirically-fit extreme value distributions

  2025cites this paper
• Exploring Interactions of Cloudiness, Solar Forcing and North Atlantic Circulation in Mediterranean Climate Variability

  2025cites this paper
• Runaway Cooling From Large Solar Reductions Modulated by Ocean Overturning Circulation and Heat Uptake

  2025cites this paper
• Learning Climate Sensitivity from Future Observations, Fast and Slow

  2025influential citation
• Re‐Evaluating Historical Sea Surface Temperature Data Sets: Insights From the Diurnal Cycle, Coral Proxy Data, and Radiative Forcing

  2025cites this paper
• Statistical Fingerprints of Forced and Unforced Variability Reveal Inconsistencies Between Marine Proxies and Climate Models on Multi‐Decadal to Millennial Timescales

  2025cites this paper
• Nonlocal, Pattern-aware Response and Feedback Framework for Regional Climate Change

  2024cites this paper
• Feedbacks, Pattern Effects, and Efficacies in a Large Ensemble of HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL Historical Simulations

  2024cites this paper
• Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates

  2024cites this paper
• Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity

  2024cites this paper
• The sensitivity and evolutionary trajectory of the mountain cryosphere: Implications for mountain geomorphic systems and hazards

  2023cites this paper
• Time‐Evolving Radiative Feedbacks in the Historical Period

  2023cites this paper
• Climate sensitivity from radiative-convective equilibrium: A chalkboard approach

  2023cites this paper
• Climate energy balance models: two layers, orders, timescales, or regions?

  2023cites this paper
• Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

  2023cites this paper
• Why Is Climate Sensitivity for Solar Forcing Smaller than for an Equivalent CO2 Forcing?

  2023cites this paper
• Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

  2022influential citation
• Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions

  2022cites this paper
• On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback

  2022cites this paper
• Climate response and sensitivity: time scales and late tipping points

  2022cites this paper
• Separating internal and externally forced contributions to global temperature variability using a Bayesian stochastic energy balance framework.

  2022cites this paper
• Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance

  2022influential citation
• Origins of a relatively tight lower bound on anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing from Bayesian analysis of historical observations

  2021cites this paper
• Global Surface Temperature Response to 11-Yr Solar Cycle Forcing Consistent with General Circulation Model Results

  2021cites this paper
• Climate Sensitivity and Cryospheric Systems

  2021cites this paper
• 23rd Century surprises: Long-term dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

  2021cites this paper
• Three Flavors of Radiative Feedbacks and Their Implications for Estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

  2021cites this paper
• Palearctic passerine migrant declines in African wintering grounds in the Anthropocene (1970-1990 and near future): A conservation assessment using publicly available GIS predictors and machine learning.

  2021cites this paper
• Development of a Helmet Device Capable of Measuring Perspiration during Activity and the Possibility of New Index for the Early Detection of Heat Stroke

  2021cites this paper
• Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

  2021influential citation
• Does feedback temperature dependence influence the slow mode of the climate response?

  2021cites this paper
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation Pattern Effect

  2021influential citation
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response biased low in historical simulations of CMIP6 models

  2021cites this paper
• Projections of the Transient State‐Dependency of Climate Feedbacks

  2021cites this paper
• Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150‐Year, and Longer Simulations

  2020cites this paper
• Equilibrium- and Transient-State Dependencies of Climate Sensitivity: Are They Important for Climate Projections?

  2020cites this paper
• Constraints on long term warming in a climate mitigation scenario

  2020cites this paper
• Anthropocene climate bifurcation

  2020cites this paper
• New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES

  2020cites this paper
• Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record

  2020cites this paper
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models

  2020cites this paper
• Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0

  2020cites this paper
• Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations

  2020cites this paper
• Optimal Estimation of Stochastic Energy Balance Model Parameters

  2020cites this paper
• The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations

  2020influential citation
• Separating forced and unforced components of climate change: The utility of pattern recognition methods in Large Ensembles and observations

  2020cites this paper
• Intermodel Spread in the Pattern Effect and Its Contribution to Climate Sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

  2020influential citation
• Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations

  2020influential citation
• An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

  2020cites this paper
• A Review of Membrane Computing Models for Complex Ecosystems and a Case Study on a Complex Giant Panda System

  2020cites this paper
• A multicointegration model of global climate change

  2020cites this paper
• Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets

  2020cites this paper
• Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

  2020cites this paper
• Estimating Radiative Forcing With a Nonconstant Feedback Parameter and Linear Response

  2020influential citation
• Supplement of Arctic amplification under global warming of 1 . 5 and 2 ◦ C in NorESM 1-Happi

  2019cites this paper
• Attributing Historical and Future Evolution of Radiative Feedbacks to Regional Warming Patterns using a Green’s Function Approach: The Preeminence of the Western Pacific

  2019cites this paper
• The End of the Wait for Climate Sensitivity?

  2019cites this paper
• Comparison of Effective Radiative Forcing Calculations Using Multiple Methods, Drivers, and Models

  2019cites this paper
• A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance

  2019influential citation
• Towards a Moral Compass to Guide Sustainability Transformations in a High-End Climate Change World

  2019cites this paper
• A Limited Role for Unforced Internal Variability in Twentieth-Century Warming

  2019influential citation
• LongRunMIP: Motivation and Design for a Large Collection of Millennial-Length AOGCM Simulations

  2019cites this paper
• Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty

  2019influential citation
• Response to Reviewer 1

  2019cites this paper
• An energy balance model for paleoclimate transitions

  2019cites this paper
• Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data

  2018influential citation
• Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development

  2018cites this paper
• What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us about Their Climate Sensitivity?

  2018cites this paper
• The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity

  2018cites this paper
• Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression

  2018cites this paper
• Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development

  2018cites this paper
• Sensible Questions on Climate Sensitivity

  2018cites this paper
• Análisis filosófico para una fundamentación de la relación entre persona y ambiente

  2018cites this paper
• for “The realized warming fraction: 2 A multi-model sensitivity study”

  2018cites this paper
• An Economic Anatomy of Optimal Climate Policy

  2018cites this paper
• A post-Paris literature review of negative emissions technology, and potential for Ireland

  2018cites this paper
• Towards a Middle Pleistocene terrestrial climate reconstruction based on herpetofaunal assemblages from the Iberian Peninsula: State of the art and perspectives

  2018cites this paper
• Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

  2018cites this paper
• Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

  2018cites this paper
• An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability

  2018cites this paper
• Transience in cascading paraglacial systems

  2018influential citation
• Radiative Feedbacks From Stochastic Variability in Surface Temperature and Radiative Imbalance

  2018cites this paper
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models

  2018influential citation
• Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity

  2018cites this paper
• The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity

  2018cites this paper
• Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present.

  2018cites this paper
• Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth’s observed radiation budget

  2017cites this paper
• Analyzing the dependence of global cloud feedback on the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature change with a Green's function approach

  2017cites this paper
• Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

  2017cites this paper
• Origins and impacts of spatial and temporal long-range dependence in the climate system

  2017cites this paper
• The Diversity of Cloud Responses to Twentieth Century Sea Surface Temperatures

  2017cites this paper
• An Energy Balance Model of Climate Change Incorporating the Roles of Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapour as Greenhouse Gases

  2017cites this paper
• Meteorological Drivers of the Low-Cloud Radiative Feedback Pattern Effect and its Uncertainty

  year unknowncites this paper
• Paleoclimate pattern e ! ects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming

  year unknowncites this paper