A simulation model for the transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes

Prentice, I.C., Sykes, M.T. and Cramer, W., 1993. A simulation model for the transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes. Ecol. Modelling, 65: 51-70. Forests are likely to show complex transient responses to rapid changes in climate. The model described here simulates the dynamics of forest landscapes in a changing environment with simple phenomenological equations for tree growth processes and local environmental feedbacks. Tree establishment and growth rates are modified by species-specific functions describing the effects of winter and summer temperature limitations, accumulated annual foliage net assimilation and sapwood respiration as functions of temperature, CO 2 fertilization, and growing-season drought. These functions provide external conditions for the simulation of patch-scale forest dynamics by a forest succession model, FORSKA, in which all of the trees on each 0.1 ha patch interact by competition for light and nutrients. The landscape is simulated as an array of such patches. The probability of disturbance on a patch is a power function of time since disturbance. Forest structure, composition and biomass simulated for the landscape average in boreal and temperate deciduous forests approach reasonable equilibrium values in 200-400 years. A climatic warning scenario is applied to central Sweden, where temperature and precipitation increases are shown to interact with each other and with soil water capacity in determining the transient and equilibrium responses of the forest landscape to climate change.

• Publication year

  1993

• Venue

  Ecological Modelling

• Publication date

  Unknown publication date

• Fields of study

  Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/0304-3800(93)90126-D
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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