Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be?

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2009

• Venue

  Ecography

• Publication date

  2009-10-01

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1111/J.1600-0587.2009.05810.X
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• [Regression modeling strategies].

  2011cited by this paper
• Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models

  2009cited by this paper
• Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change.

  2009cited by this paper
• Land-use change and subalpine tree dynamics: colonization of Larix decidua in French subalpine grasslands

  2008cited by this paper
• Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

  2008cited by this paper
• Components of uncertainty in species distribution analysis: a case study of the Great Grey Shrike.

  2008cited by this paper
• Climate change can cause spatial mismatch of trophically interacting species.

  2008cited by this paper
• A working guide to boosted regression trees.

  2008cited by this paper
• Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians

  2008cited by this paper
• A landscape model for quantifying the trade-off between conservation needs and economic constraints in the management of a semi-natural grassland community

  2008cited by this paper
• Favourability functions versus probability of presence: advantages and misuses

  2008cited by this paper
• Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions

  2007influential reference
• Hierarchical analysis of species distributions and abundance across environmental gradients.

  2007cited by this paper
• Effects of species’ ecology on the accuracy of distribution models

  2007cited by this paper
• Identifying Core Areas in a Species’ Range Using Temporal Suitability Analysis: an Example Using Little Bustards Tetrax Tetrax L. in Spain

  2007cited by this paper
• Scales of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems.

  2007cited by this paper
• Updating bird species distribution at large spatial scales: applications of habitat modelling to data from long‐term monitoring programs

  2007cited by this paper
• Future challenges

  2007cited by this paper
• Predicting species distributions: a critical comparison of the most common statistical models using artificial species

  2007cited by this paper
• Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either–or presence–absence

  2007cited by this paper
• Evaluation methods

  2006cited by this paper
• Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy

  2006cited by this paper
• Predicting patterns of plant species richness in megadiverse South Africa

  2006cited by this paper
• The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods

  2006cited by this paper
• How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?

  2006cited by this paper
• Analysis of pattern–process interactions based on landscape models—Overview, general concepts, and methodological issues

  2006cited by this paper
• Variation in demersal fish species richness in the oceans surrounding New Zealand: an analysis using boosted regression trees

  2006cited by this paper
• Evaluation of statistical models used for predicting plant species distributions: Role of artificial data and theory

  2006cited by this paper
• Migration rate limitations on climate change‐induced range shifts in Cape Proteaceae

  2006cited by this paper
• Constrain to perform: Regularization of habitat models

  2006cited by this paper
• Applied Logistic Regression: Hosmer/Applied Logistic Regression

  2005cited by this paper
• Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.

  2005cited by this paper
• Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change

  2005cited by this paper
• Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe.

  2005cited by this paper
• FACTORS AFFECTING SPECIES DISTRIBUTION PREDICTIONS: A SIMULATION MODELING EXPERIMENT

  2005cited by this paper
• The Importance of Spatial Scale in Habitat Models: Capercaillie in the Swiss Alps

  2005cited by this paper
• Species-specific traits associated to prediction errors in bird habitat suitability modelling

  2005cited by this paper
• The continuing challenges of testing species distribution models

  2005cited by this paper
• Algorithms to Account for Topographic Shading Effects and Surface Temperature Dependence on Terrain Elevation in Diagnostic Meteorological Models

  2005cited by this paper
• Population dynamics and habitat connectivity affecting the spatial spread of populations – a simulation study

  2004cited by this paper
• Extinction risk from climate change

  2004cited by this paper
• Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change

  2004cited by this paper
• Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions

  2004cited by this paper
• An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions

  2004cited by this paper
• Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and Scale

  2003cited by this paper
• Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?

  2003cited by this paper
• Spatial mechanisms for coexistence of species sharing a common natural enemy.

  2003cited by this paper
• SPECIES: A Spatial Evaluation of Climate Impact on the Envelope of Species

  2002cited by this paper
• Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and Scale

  2002cited by this paper
• Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modelling

  2002cited by this paper
• Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models

  2002influential reference
• Does Herbivore Diversity Depend on Plant Diversity? The Case of California Butterflies

  2002cited by this paper
• Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  2002cited by this paper
• Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050

  2002cited by this paper
• Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

  2002cited by this paper
• INFERRING PROCESS FROM PATTERN: CAN TERRITORY OCCUPANCY PROVIDE INFORMATION ABOUT LIFE HISTORY PARAMETERS?

  2001cited by this paper
• Assessing habitat-suitability models with a virtual species

  2001cited by this paper
• An evaluation of the predictive performance of distributional models for flora and fauna in north-east New South Wales.

  2001cited by this paper
• Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis

  2001cited by this paper
• Towards a hierarchical framework for modelling the spatial distribution of animals

  2001cited by this paper
• Terrain Analysis: Principles and Applications

  2001influential reference
• The effects of metapopulation structure on indirect interactions in host-parasitoid assemblages

  2000cited by this paper
• Host–parasitoid population dynamics

  2000cited by this paper
• An evaluation of alternative algorithms for fitting species distribution models using logistic regression

  2000cited by this paper
• Coefficients of Determination for Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis

  2000cited by this paper
• Virtual biologists observe virtual grasshoppers: an assessment of different mobility parameters for the analysis of movement patterns

  1999cited by this paper
• The State of Boosting ∗

  1999cited by this paper
• Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

  1998cited by this paper
• A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models

  1997influential reference
• Modeling Topographic Solar Radiation Using GOES Data

  1997influential reference
• Identifying Sites for Riparian Wetland Restoration: Application of a Model to the Upper Arkansas River Basin

  1997cited by this paper
• Modelling the biological control of insect pests: a review of host-parasitoid models

  1996cited by this paper
• Testing the Generality of Bird‐Habitat Models

  1995cited by this paper
• Modelling environmental heterogeneity in forested landscapes

  1993cited by this paper
• The spatial dynamics of host-parasitoid systems

  1992cited by this paper
• Spatial structure and chaos in insect population dynamics

  1991cited by this paper
• Cellular automata as a paradigm for ecological modeling

  1988cited by this paper
• A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology

  1979cited by this paper
• A new look at the statistical model identification

  1974cited by this paper
• Niche overlap as a function of environmental variability.

  1972cited by this paper
• Stock and Recruitment

  1954cited by this paper
• The Balance of Animal Populations.—Part I.

  1935cited by this paper
• Supplement: the Balance of Animal Populations

  1933cited by this paper
• Animal Aggregations.

  1931cited by this paper
• Animal Aggregations: A Study in General Sociology

  1931cited by this paper

• Linking Community-Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function.

  2026cites this paper
• Habitat suitability for Sociable Lapwing (Vanellus gregarius) increases across its global range, but populations continue to decline

  2026cites this paper
• Reimagining species on the move across space and time.

  2025cites this paper
• The combined effects of site susceptibility to invasion and fire on population dynamics of the invasive tree Acacia dealbata

  2025cites this paper
• Prediction of the potential distribution of Piptanthus nepalensis in China under future climate scenarios

  2025cites this paper
• Comparing analytical protocols for identifying causes of population changes

  2025cites this paper
• A high resolution spatial modelling framework for landscape-level, strategic conservation planning

  2025cites this paper
• Incorporating responses of traits to changing climates into species distribution models: a path forward

  2025cites this paper
• Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cinnamomum malabatrum (Laurales—Lauraceae), a Culturally and Ecologically Important Species of Malabar, Western Ghats, India

  2025cites this paper
• Should we exploit opportunistic databases with joint species distribution models? Artificial and real data suggest it depends on the sampling completeness

  2024cites this paper
• Habitat availability decline for waterbirds in a sensitive wetland: Climate change impact on the Ebro Delta

  2024cites this paper
• Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

  2024cites this paper
• Large ungulates will be present in most of Japan by 2050 owing to natural expansion and human population shrinkage

  2024cites this paper
• Spatial distribution of the demersal chondrichthyan community from the western Mediterranean trawl bycatch

  2023cites this paper
• Population evolution analysis in collective intelligence design ecosystem

  2023cites this paper
• Making virtual species less virtual by reverse engineering of spatiotemporal ecological models

  2023cites this paper
• Individual based models for the simulation of fish movement near barriers: Current work and future directions.

  2023cites this paper
• Schrödinger’s Range-Shifting Cat: How Skewed Temperature Dependence Impacts Persistence with Climate Change

  2023cites this paper
• Effects of sample size, data quality, and species response in environmental space on modeling species distributions

  2023cites this paper
• Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds.

  2023cites this paper
• Species distributions models may predict accurately future distributions but poorly how distributions change: A critical perspective on model validation

  2023cites this paper
• Decoupling of species and plant communities of the U.S. Southwest: A CCSM4 climate scenario example

  2023cites this paper
• Large carnivore range expansion in Iberia in relation to different scenarios of permeability of human‐dominated landscapes

  2022cites this paper
• Predictive habitat suitability models for Teucrium polium L. using boosted regression trees

  2022cites this paper
• Climate matching and anthropogenic factors contribute to the colonization and extinction of local populations during avian invasions

  2022cites this paper
• Rapid restructuring of the odontocete community in an ocean warming hotspot

  2022cites this paper
• Transferable species distribution modelling: Comparative performance of Generalised Functional Response models

  2022cites this paper
• Environmental variability in aquatic ecosystems: Avenues for future multifactorial experiments

  2022cites this paper
• Exploring timescales of predictability in species distributions

  2021cites this paper
• Creating virtual species to test species distribution models: the importance of landscape structure, dispersal and population processes

  2021cites this paper
• Living on the edge: genetic structure and geographic distribution in the threatened Markham’s Storm-Petrel (Hydrobates markhami)

  2021cites this paper
• The emergent interactions that govern biodiversity change

  2020cites this paper
• Within Reach? Habitat Availability as a Function of Individual Mobility and Spatial Structuring

  2020cites this paper
• Spatio‐temporal dynamics of the threatened elkhorn coral Acropora palmata: Implications for conservation

  2020cites this paper
• The challenge of novel abiotic conditions for species undergoing climate‐induced range shifts

  2020cites this paper
• Citizen science for predicting spatio-temporal patterns in seabird abundance during migration

  2020cites this paper
• Estimation of metapopulation colonization rates from disturbance history and occurrence pattern data.

  2019cites this paper
• Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance

  2019cites this paper
• Territorial landscapes: incorporating density-dependence into wolf habitat selection studies

  2019cites this paper
• Assessment of a large number of empirical plant species niche models by elicitation of knowledge from two national experts

  2019cites this paper
• Mechanistic models of global biodiversity

  2019cites this paper
• Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

  2018cites this paper
• Do joint species distribution models reliably detect interspecific interactions from co‐occurrence data in homogenous environments?

  2018cites this paper
• Models of upland species’ distributions are improved by accounting for geodiversity

  2018cites this paper
• Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.

  2018cites this paper
• Modeling population dynamics and species interactions in a changing climate

  2018cites this paper
• Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

  2018cites this paper
• Exploring invasibility with species distribution modeling: How does fire promote cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion within lower montane forests?

  2018cites this paper
• Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration

  2018cites this paper
• Integrating demography, dispersal and interspecific interactions into bird distribution models

  2017cites this paper
• Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data

  2017cites this paper
• Modelling the spatial variation of vital rates: An evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of correlative species distribution models

  2017cites this paper
• A spatially-explicit dynamic modelling framework to assess habitat suitability for endangered species: The case of Red-billed Chough under land use change scenarios in Portugal

  2017cites this paper
• Which factors and processes drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes?—Insights from development and parameterisation of a mechanistic vegetation model

  2017cites this paper
• Modelling the distribution of an oviparous skink, Oligosoma suteri

  2017cites this paper
• Marine species distributions : from data to predictive models

  2017cites this paper
• Spatial predictions at the community level: from current approaches to future frameworks

  2017cites this paper
• Spatio-temporal dynamic of suitable areas for species conservation in West Africa: eight economically important wild palms under present and future climates

  2017cites this paper
• Competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process: evidence and implications for species distribution modeling

  2017cites this paper
• Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range 1 dynamics 2 3

  2016cites this paper
• Stage-specific distribution models can predict eel (Anguilla anguilla) occurrence during settlement in coastal lagoons

  2016cites this paper
• A multi-scale looping approach to predict spatially dynamic patterns of functional species richness in changing landscapes

  2016cites this paper
• Spatio‐temporal variation of biotic factors underpins contemporary range dynamics of congeners

  2016cites this paper
• ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF BIOLOGY ZOOLOGY

  2016cites this paper
• Integrating land cover structure and functioning to predict biodiversity patterns: a hierarchical modelling framework designed for ecosystem management

  2016cites this paper
• Selecting site characteristics at different spatial and thematic scales for shrubby cinquefoil (Potentilla fruticosa L.) distribution mapping

  2016cites this paper
• Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?

  2016cites this paper
• Temporal variability in hydrology modifies the influence of geomorphology on wetland distribution along a desert stream

  2016cites this paper
• The abundance of European breeding birds : present and future

  2016cites this paper
• The scaling of geographic ranges: implications for species distribution models

  2016cites this paper
• Historical summer distribution of the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis): a hypothesis based on environmental preferences of a congeneric species

  2015cites this paper
• Habitat suitability and protection status of four species of amphibians in the Dominican Republic

  2015cites this paper
• Integrating a Population Genomics Focus into Biogeographic and Macroecological Research

  2015cites this paper
• Long‐term population dynamics of a migrant bird suggests interaction of climate change and competition with resident species

  2015cites this paper
• Reconstruction of marine mammals’ historical distribution and abundance : setting a baseline to understand the past, inform the present and plan the future

  2015cites this paper
• Establishing the link between habitat selection and animal population dynamics

  2015cites this paper
• Species distribution modelling of stream macroinvertebrates at the catchment scale

  2015cites this paper
• Physiological constraints on geographic distributions of species

  2015cites this paper
• Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise.

  2015cites this paper
• Potential impacts of oil and gas development and climate change on migratory reindeer calving grounds across the Russian Arctic

  2014cites this paper
• Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance

  2014cites this paper
• Spatial distribution modelling of the endangered bivalve Pinna nobilis in a Marine Protected Area

  2014cites this paper
• Modelling species distributional shifts across broad spatial extents by linking dynamic occupancy models with public‐based surveys

  2014cites this paper
• Benefits and drawbacks of two modelling approaches for a generalist carnivore: can models predict where Wile E. Coyote will turn up next?

  2014cites this paper
• Climate change shifts environmental space and limits transferability of treeline models

  2014cites this paper
• Ecological niche models of mammalian glacial refugia show consistent bias

  2014cites this paper
• A note on the effectiveness of incorporating management objectives with ecological variables when modeling red deer abundance

  2014cites this paper
• Assessing species vulnerability to climate and land use change: the case of the Swiss breeding birds

  2014cites this paper
• Influence of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Range Dynamics and Conservation Priorities of Long-distance Migratory Birds

  2014cites this paper
• Inferencia espacial y predicción de la distribución de plantas: un estudio a diferentes escalas = Spatial inference and prediction of plant species distribution: a multiscale study

  2013cites this paper
• The establishment of non-native plant species in relation to climate and land use in Britain

  2013cites this paper
• Modelling future no-analogue climate distributions: A world-wide phytoclimatic niche-based survey

  2013cites this paper
• Predicting range shifts under global change: the balance between local adaptation and dispersal

  2013cites this paper
• The impact of climate on the geographical distribution of phytoplankton species in boreal lakes

  2013cites this paper
• Host plant-mediated effects of climate change on the occurrence of the Alcon blue butterfly (Phengaris alcon)

  2013cites this paper
• How can we bring together empiricists and modellers in functional biodiversity research

  2013cites this paper
• Using the palaeontological record of Microtus to test species distribution models and reveal responses to climate change

  2013cites this paper
• Spatial stratification of various Lyme disease spirochetes in a Central European site.

  2013cites this paper
• Modelling habitat suitability for alpine rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) combining object-based classification of IKONOS imagery and Habitat Suitability Index modelling

  2013cites this paper
• MODELLING SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS TO MAP THE ROAD TOWARDS CARNIVORE CONSERVATION IN THE TROPICS

  2013influential citation