Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2010

• Venue

  Global Change Biology

• Publication date

  2010-04-01

• Fields of study

  Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02000.x
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species.

  2009cited by this paper
• Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere.

  2009influential reference
• Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models to predict amphibian species richness patterns.

  2009cited by this paper
• Consensual predictions of potential distributional areas for invasive species: a case study of Argentine ants in the Iberian Peninsula

  2009influential reference
• Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies

  2009cited by this paper
• NeuralEnsembles: a neural network based ensemble forecasting program for habitat and bioclimatic suitability analysis

  2009cited by this paper
• Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling

  2009cited by this paper
• Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models

  2009cited by this paper
• Predicting 21st‐century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

  2009influential reference
• BIOMOD – a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

  2009cited by this paper
• Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

  2009influential reference
• Regional analysis of the impacts of climate change on cheatgrass invasion shows potential risk and opportunity

  2008influential reference
• Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

  2008influential reference
• Components of uncertainty in species distribution analysis: a case study of the Great Grey Shrike.

  2008cited by this paper
• Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?

  2008influential reference
• Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species

  2008influential reference
• Species traits are associated with the quality of bioclimatic models

  2008cited by this paper
• Predicting smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) occurrence across North America under climate change: a comparison of statistical approaches

  2008cited by this paper
• Climate change hastens the turnover of stream fish assemblages

  2008cited by this paper
• Modelling the spatial distribution of a threatened butterfly: Impacts of scale and statistical technique

  2007cited by this paper
• The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution models

  2007cited by this paper
• Global climate projections

  2007cited by this paper
• Species distribution models and ecological theory: A critical assessment and some possible new approaches

  2007cited by this paper
• Prediction and validation of the potential global distribution of a problematic alien invasive species — the American bullfrog

  2007cited by this paper
• Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

  2007cited by this paper
• Effects of species’ ecology on the accuracy of distribution models

  2007cited by this paper
• Climate models and their evaluation

  2007cited by this paper
• Regional climate projections

  2007cited by this paper
• WHAT MATTERS FOR PREDICTING THE OCCURRENCES OF TREES: TECHNIQUES, DATA, OR SPECIES' CHARACTERISTICS?

  2007cited by this paper
• Application of common predictive habitat techniques for post‐border weed risk management

  2007cited by this paper
• Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

  2007cited by this paper
• Model‐based uncertainty in species range prediction

  2006influential reference
• Quantifying uncertainty in the potential distribution of an invasive species: climate and the Argentine ant.

  2006influential reference
• Error and uncertainty in habitat models

  2006cited by this paper
• Predicting climate‐induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability

  2006influential reference
• Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

  2006cited by this paper
• The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in the UK under present and future climate

  2006cited by this paper
• Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change

  2006influential reference
• Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

  2006influential reference
• Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe

  2006influential reference
• Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

  2006influential reference
• Making better biogeographical predictions of species’ distributions

  2006cited by this paper
• Uncertainty of bioclimate envelope models based on the geographical distribution of species

  2005cited by this paper
• Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe.

  2005influential reference
• Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

  2005cited by this paper
• Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change

  2005influential reference
• Species-specific traits associated to prediction errors in bird habitat suitability modelling

  2005cited by this paper
• Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change

  2005influential reference
• Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change

  2004influential reference
• APE: Analyses of Phylogenetics and Evolution in R language

  2004cited by this paper
• An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions

  2004cited by this paper
• BIOMOD – optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change

  2003influential reference
• Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change

  2002cited by this paper
• Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise

  2002cited by this paper
• Analysis of comparative data using generalized estimating equations.

  2002cited by this paper
• A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas

  2002influential reference
• Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios

  2002cited by this paper
• Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

  2001cited by this paper
• Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology

  2000cited by this paper
• A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models

  1997cited by this paper
• Randomization and Monte Carlo Methods in Biology.

  1990cited by this paper
• Directional Autocorrelation: An Extension of Spatial Correlograms to Two Dimensions

  1986cited by this paper

• Looking backward for the future: long-term population recovery, habitat associations, and future climatic vulnerability of the critically endangered Sino-Mongolian beaver (Castor fiber birulai) in China

  2026cites this paper
• Projecting the Potential Shift of Larix principis-rupprechtii in Response to Future Climate Change: A Regional Analysis of the Haihe Basin in Northern China

  2026cites this paper
• Bat Migration Intensifies Cave Fish Richness Loss Under Climate Change in China

  2026cites this paper
• Flexible methods for species distribution modeling with small samples

  2026cites this paper
• Spatial prediction of Melanoplus differentialis using an ensemble of multiple species distribution models

  2026cites this paper
• Predicting the invasion risk of Bactrocera dorsalis in Italy under climate and land cover change

  2025cites this paper
• Anticipating Shifts in American Beech Distribution in a Changing Climate

  2025influential citation
• Predicting climate change impacts on Suaeda japonica distribution in East Asian salt marshes using ensemble modeling.

  2025cites this paper
• Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China

  2025cites this paper
• Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Endangered Amphibians and Reptiles in South Korea

  2025cites this paper
• Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

  2025cites this paper
• Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Conservation Priorities of Gymnosperms With Different Leaf Shapes in China Under Climate Change

  2025cites this paper
• Asymmetric dispersal in freshwater species distribution models varies depending on the spatial pattern of fish species

  2025cites this paper
• Prediction of the potential distribution of Tirpitzia sinensis in China based on MaxEnt modelling

  2025cites this paper
• River Network Connectivity Reductions Dominate Declines in the Richness of Plateau Fish Species Under Climate Change in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

  2025influential citation
• Impacts of dams on fish habitat connectivity greatly outweigh climate change in the Jinsha river basin, China

  2025cites this paper
• Potential global distributions of an important aphid pest, Rhopalosiphum padi: insights from ensemble models with multiple variables

  2025cites this paper
• Contrasting effects of climate and anthropogenic change on future invasion risk of a solitary bee Amegilla pulchra.

  2025cites this paper
• Phylogeny and Climate Change–Driven Distribution Dynamics of Keteleeria

  2025cites this paper
• Projected Spatial–Temporal Habitat Patterns of the Lady Amherst's Pheasant (Chrysolophus amherstiae) Under Climate and Land Use Change

  2025cites this paper
• Predicting suitable winter habitats of Marmora’s Warbler (Curruca sarda) in North Africa using species distribution models

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating multiple landscape management strategies to optimise conservation under climate and planning scenarios: a case study in the Iberian Peninsula

  2025cites this paper
• Spatiotemporal distribution of negative human-elephant interactions in Wayanad district, Kerala, India

  2025cites this paper
• Projecting spatiotemporal bioclimatic niche dynamics of endemic Pyrenean plant species under climate change: how much will we lose?

  2025cites this paper
• Improving species distribution models for climate change studies: ecological plausibility and performance metrics

  2025cites this paper
• Proximity to water shapes the distribution of natural elephant mortality in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe

  2025cites this paper
• Conservation planning for environmental water to climate refugia in the manageable Murray-Darling Basin.

  2025cites this paper
• Distributional projections of an Amazonian fish in native and non-native watersheds of South America in response to climate change

  2025cites this paper
• Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the Camellia Subgenus Camellia in China and Providing Insights into Camellia Resources Management Under Future Climate Change

  2025cites this paper
• Biomod2 Modeling for Predicting Suitable Distribution of Bamboo Bat (Tylonycteris pachypus) Under Climate Change

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating phenotypic and genetic diversity, and species distribution modeling to set long-term conservation strategies for the endangered Afzelia africana in Benin (West Africa)

  2025cites this paper
• The Role of Palaeobiogeography and Fossil Evidences in Understanding Modern Freshwater Fish Distribution: A Review

  2025cites this paper
• Flexible Climate Adaptation Can Substantially Reduce Conservation Costs and Mitigate Risk

  2025cites this paper
• Identifying refugia from the synergistic threats of climate change and invasive species

  2025cites this paper
• Comprehensive prediction of potential spatiotemporal distribution patterns, priority planting regions, and introduction adaptability of Elymus sibiricus in the Chinese region

  2025cites this paper
• Climate-driven shifts in suitable areas of Alternaria leaf blotch (Alternaria mali Roberts) on apples: Projections and uncertainty analysis in China

  2025cites this paper
• Predicted population declines driven by climate change can be mitigated with a new protected area in endemic tetrapods from Madagascar

  2025cites this paper
• The Ecological Risks and Invasive Potential of Introduced Ornamental Plants in China

  2025cites this paper
• Modelling of past, current and future distribution of suitable habitat for Menelik’s bushbuck (Tragelaphus sylvaticus meneliki Neumann, 1902) in the Ethiopian highlands

  2025cites this paper
• Climate Refugia of Endangered Mammals in South Korea Under SSP Climate Scenarios: An Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling Approach

  2025cites this paper
• EUNIS habitat maps: enhancing thematic and spatial resolution for Europe through machine learning

  2025cites this paper
• Modeling the Suitable Habitat of Silver Pheasant (Lophura nycthemera) in China Under Climate and Land Cover Change

  2025influential citation
• Human footprint with machine learning identifies risks of the invasive weed Conyza sumatrensis across land-use types under climate change

  2025cites this paper
• The Involvement of Human Factors Brings New Findings for Predicting Global Suitability Habitat for Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae)

  2025cites this paper
• The Habitat Alteration of Corrigiola Litoralis L. (Strapwort) on the Elbe River Driven by Climate Change

  2024influential citation
• Cat out of the bag: Coastal and Gangetic plains outside protected areas require focus for fishing cat conservation in southern West Bengal, India

  2024cites this paper
• Micronutrient levels of global tropical reef fish communities differ from fisheries capture

  2024cites this paper
• Ensemble modeling of aquatic plant invasions and economic cost analysis in China under climate change scenarios.

  2024cites this paper
• Current and future climate suitability for the hazel dormouse in the UK and the impact on reintroduced populations

  2024cites this paper
• Prediction of Potential Habitat of Monochamus alternatus Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios

  2024cites this paper
• Habitat shifts of the vulnerable crinoid Leptometra phalangium under climate change scenarios

  2024cites this paper
• Assessing climate change threats to biodiversity and protected areas of Iran

  2024cites this paper
• Habitat suitability study for green gram production under present and future climatic scenarios in Kibwezi East Kenya

  2024cites this paper
• Unveiling the suitable habitats and future conservation strategies of Tridacna maxima in the Indo‐Pacific core area based on species distribution model

  2024cites this paper
• Beyond traditional methods: Innovative integration of LISS IV and Sentinel 2A imagery for unparalleled insight into Himalayan ibex habitat suitability

  2024cites this paper
• Assessing the Distribution and Richness of Mammalian Species Using a Stacking Species Distribution Model in a Temperate Forest

  2024cites this paper
• Climate Change Responses of High-Elevation Polylepis Forests

  2024cites this paper
• Unexpected sources of uncertainty in projecting habitat shifts for Arctic shorebirds under climate change

  2024cites this paper
• ClimateDT: A Global Scale-Free Dynamic Downscaling Portal for Historic and Future Climate Data

  2024cites this paper
• Improving species distribution forecasts by measuring and communicating uncertainty: An invasive species case study.

  2024cites this paper
• Bee and butterfly records indicate diversity losses in western and southern North America, but extensive knowledge gaps remain

  2024cites this paper
• Atlantic salmon habitat-abundance modeling using machine learning methods

  2024cites this paper
• The best of two worlds: using stacked generalization for integrating expert range maps in species distribution models

  2024cites this paper
• Guiding Conservation Strategies for China’s Corybas Species through Species Distribution Modeling

  2024cites this paper
• Partitioning climate uncertainty in ecological projections: Pacific oysters in a hotter Europe

  2024cites this paper
• Amphibians at risk: Effects of climate change in the southwestern North American drylands

  2024cites this paper
• Machine-Learning Ensemble Model Prediction of Northward Shift in Potato Cyst Nematodes (Globodera rostochiensis and G. pallida) Distribution under Climate Change Conditions1

  2024cites this paper
• Multi-modal MRI Translation via Evidential Regression and Distribution Calibration

  2024cites this paper
• Conservation value of rivers under climate change: a case study from Fars Province, Iran

  2024cites this paper
• Modelling the Distribution of Key Mediterranean Gorgonians: An Ensemble Approach to Unravel Broad‐Scale Patterns and Guide Conservation Efforts

  2024cites this paper
• Contrasted effect of climate and anthropogenic change on future invasion risk of a solitary bee Amegilla pulchra

  2024cites this paper
• Uncertainty in consensus predictions of plant species' vulnerability to climate change

  2024cites this paper
• Worldwide distribution and phylogeography of the agave weevil Scyphophorus acupunctatus (Coleoptera, Dryophthoridae): the rise of an overlooked invasion

  2024cites this paper
• Ensemble modelling to predict the distribution of vulnerable marine ecosystems indicator taxa on data‐limited seamounts of Cabo Verde (NW Africa)

  2024cites this paper
• Prediction of Current and Future Suitable Habitats for Three Invasive Freshwater Fish Species in Europe

  2023cites this paper
• Data error propagation in stacked bioclimatic envelope models.

  2023cites this paper
• Fine-Scale Species Distribution Modeling of Abies koreana across a Subalpine Zone in South Korea for In Situ Species Conservation

  2023cites this paper
• Choice of climate data influences predictions for current and future global invasion risks for two Phelsuma geckos

  2023cites this paper
• Empirical Data Suggest That the Kashmir Musk Deer (Moschus cupreus, Grubb 1982) Is the One Musk Deer Distributed in the Western Himalayas: An Integration of Ecology, Genetics and Geospatial Modelling Approaches

  2023cites this paper
• Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by lake and global climate models

  2023cites this paper
• dugMatting: Decomposed-Uncertainty-Guided Matting

  2023cites this paper
• Spatio-temporal distribution pattern and the correlation with key environmental factors of Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Northeast China

  2023cites this paper
• Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Ecological Characteristics Study of Abies nephrolepis in South Korea

  2023cites this paper
• Characteristics of Dieback of Pinus densiflora and Risk Assessment in the Wangpicheon Ecosystem and Landscape Conservation Area in Uljin, South Korea

  2023cites this paper
• Biological invasions and eutrophication reshape the spatial patterns of stream fish size spectra in France

  2023influential citation
• Mapping the Species Richness of Woody Plants in Republic of Korea

  2023cites this paper
• Predicting Distribution and Range Dynamics of Three Threatened Cypripedium Species under Climate Change Scenario in Western Himalaya

  2023cites this paper
• How future climate and tree distribution changes shape the biodiversity of macrofungi across Europe

  2023cites this paper
• Assigning trend‐based conservation status despite high uncertainty

  2023cites this paper
• Prediction of habitat suitability, connectivity, and corridors in the future to conserve roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) as a locally endangered species in northern Iran

  2023cites this paper
• Determining representative pseudo-absences for invasive plant distribution modeling based on geographic similarity

  2023cites this paper
• Predicting the Habitat Suitability for Angelica gigas Medicinal Herb Using an Ensemble Species Distribution Model

  2023cites this paper
• Climate change shrinks environmental suitability for a viviparous Neotropical skink

  2023cites this paper
• Revealing the long-term trend of the global-scale Ginkgo biloba distribution and the impact of future climate change based on the ensemble modeling

  2023cites this paper
• Impact of climate changes in the suitable areas for Coffea arabica L. production in Mozambique: Agroforestry as an alternative management system to strengthen crop sustainability

  2023cites this paper
• Quantitative risk assessment of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) invasion in South Korea under different climate change scenarios

  2023cites this paper
• The dimensionality reductions of environmental variables have a significant effect on the performance of species distribution models

  2023cites this paper
• Predicting extinctions with species distribution models

  2023cites this paper
• 30×30 biodiversity gains rely on national coordination

  2023cites this paper
• Preparing to eradicate a novel invader of unknown biology: a case study from Australia

  2023cites this paper