The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^ 1 – 3 , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^ 4 , 5 . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)^ 4 . The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future. We find that justice considerations constrain the integrated Earth system boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading, and our assessment provides a foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people.
Safe and just Earth system boundaries
J. Rockström,J. Gupta,Dahe Qin,S. Lade,J. Abrams,L. Andersen,David I. Armstrong McKay,Xuemei Bai,G. Bala,S. Bunn,Daniel Ciobanu,F. DeClerck,K. Ebi,L. Gifford,C. Gordon,Syezlin Hasan,N. Kanie,T. Lenton,S. Loriani,D. Liverman,Awaz Mohamed,N. Nakicenovic,D. Obura,D. Ospina,K. Prodani,C. Rammelt,B. Sakschewski,J. Scholtens,B. Stewart‐Koster,Thejna Tharammal,D. V. van Vuuren,P. Verburg,R. Winkelmann,C. Zimm,E. Bennett,S. Bringezu,Wendy Broadgate,P. Green,Lei Huang,L. Jacobson,C. Ndehedehe,Simona Pedde,J. Rocha,M. Scheffer,L. Schulte-Uebbing,W. de Vries,C. Xiao,Chi Xu,Xinwu Xu,Noelia Zafra‐Calvo,Xin Zhang
Published 2023 in Nature
ABSTRACT
PUBLICATION RECORD
- Publication year
2023
- Venue
Nature
- Publication date
2023-05-31
- Fields of study
Medicine, Environmental Science
- Identifiers
- External record
- Source metadata
Semantic Scholar, PubMed
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